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March 13 – Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has cut crude oil shipments from its onshore partners by about one-fifth this month, even though the oil will still be transported to a port outside the nearly closed Strait of Hormuz. Sources familiar with the matter said the state-owned oil producer has notified its equity partners that they are only allowed to load 80% of their remaining Murban crude quotas in March. The sources did not disclose the specific reasons but indicated that cargoes of the UAEs flagship Murban crude can still be picked up from the port of Fujairah. Previously, ADNOC had stated that these cargoes would need to be picked up from the port of Jabel Dana in the Persian Gulf, meaning they would need to cross the Strait of Hormuz. ADNOCs move comes as the Middle East conflict enters its second week, following several cases of Asian refiners being unable to pick up their March shipments. Traders familiar with the situation said some buyers Middle East orders have been cancelled due to a lack of shipping options.Market news: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company cut crude oil supplies from its onshore partners by about one-fifth this month.Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryomasa Akazawa: Japanese companies are seeking alternative sources of crude oil, including the United States, Central Asia, and South America.On March 13, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told reporters that the government is prepared to take all necessary measures regarding foreign exchange under any circumstances and is constantly monitoring the impact of rising oil prices on peoples daily lives. Katayama stated that it is evident that financial markets (including foreign exchange) are experiencing significant fluctuations in response to developments in the Middle East. She declined to comment on specific exchange rate levels. When asked whether it would be difficult to intervene in foreign exchange given the current situation where the yens depreciation is driven by soaring oil prices, Katayama said she should avoid commenting. She also stated that Japanese authorities are maintaining very close communication with US authorities, even closer than usual.March 13th - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced today that in 2025, market regulators handled 22 monopoly cases, imposing fines and confiscations totaling 653 million yuan. Focusing on key drugs such as those in short supply, emergency medications, and commonly used drugs, market regulators vigorously promoted the investigation and handling of major monopoly cases in the pharmaceutical field. They investigated and prosecuted a monopoly case involving neostigmine methyl sulfate injection, imposing fines and confiscations of 223 million yuan; and investigated a monopoly agreement case involving dexamethasone sodium phosphate raw materials, imposing fines and confiscations of 362 million yuan. The organizers were fined the maximum penalty of 5 million yuan, and related companies were fined 8% of their previous years sales revenue, leading to a price reduction of nearly 94% for related drugs.

USD/CHF has bottomed out and rebounded above the 0.93 mark, but it will continue to rise in the future

Oct 26, 2021 11:02

On Tuesday (October 12), the US dollar against the Swiss franc attracted some low-level buying near 0.9255 and rose to near 0.93 as the US dollar rebounded vigorously.


The strong rebound of U.S. stock index futures weakened the safe-haven Swiss franc and was seen as an important factor in promoting the exchange rate of the dollar against the Swiss franc. In addition, the shadow of the Federal Reserve’s reduction in debt purchases in November has lingered. Drive the exchange rate to strengthen rapidly.

At the same time, the weak tone surrounding US Treasury yields failed to affect the positive trend of the dollar.

Although the overall performance of non-agricultural employment data last Friday was weak, investors still believe that the Fed will still start to reduce bond purchases before the end of 2021. Fearing that the recent surge in energy prices will trigger inflation, the market is also beginning to digest the possibility of interest rate hikes in 2022.

Therefore, the focus of the market now turns to the US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday, followed by the FOMC meeting minutes. In addition, the monthly retail sales data in the United States to be announced on Friday will affect the dollar price dynamics and provide a new direction for the exchange rate of the dollar against the Swiss franc.

At the same time, traders may look for clues from the JOLTS job vacancy data released on Tuesday to provide some impetus to the North American market in early trading. This, coupled with the scheduled speech of Fed Vice Chairman Clarida and broader market risk sentiment, may bring short-term trading opportunities for the US dollar against the Swiss franc.

In addition, the IMF’s "World Economic Outlook" lowered the global growth rate forecast for 2021 from 6.0% in July to 5.9%, and maintained the growth rate forecast for 2022 at 4.9%, showing that the world economy in the next few months will have Deteriorating trend.

"However, overall minor adjustments have concealed substantial downward revisions in some countries," the IMF wrote in the report. "Due to the worsening of the epidemic situation, the prospects of low-income developing countries have dimmed a lot. This reduction also has Reflecting that the near-term prospects of the group of economies have become more difficult, partly due to supply chain disruptions."

Given the uncertainty caused by the virus and the delay in the recovery of the supply chain, the safe-haven dollar will also play an increasingly important role, which will have a profound impact on future exchange rate trends.

From a technical point of view, the currency pair has been oscillating within a familiar narrow trading range for the past week or so. This forms a rectangle on the short-term chart, indicating that traders are hesitant about the short-term trajectory of USD/CHF. This, in turn, proves to be more cautious before making big bets.

Judging from the current overall situation, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is still on the upside.

The upper resistance pays attention to 0.9333, 0.9369, 0.9400, and the lower support pays attention to 0.9276, 0.9230, 0.9208.

(Daily chart of USD/CHF)

GMT+8 22:28, USD/CHF reported 0.9303.

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