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September 17th news: On September 17th local time, Krasnodar Airport in southern Russia received the first flight since its suspension of operations. This is also the first time the airport has resumed formal operations since its closure since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.The UKs core retail price index was 4.4% year-on-year in August, compared with 4.70% in the previous month.The UKs retail price index rose by 0.4% in August, in line with expectations of 0.5% and the previous reading of 0.40%.

USD/CAD Becomes more robust in anticipation of a breach over 1.3850

Alina Haynes

Oct 12, 2022 14:42

截屏2022-10-12 上午9.46.20.png 

 

The USD/CAD pair is bouncing around 1.3800 in response to the US dollar index's sideways performance after making a better recovery from 112.50. (DXY). The attractiveness of safe haven assets is anticipated to increase as a result of the pessimistic risk sentiment and declining S&P500 futures. Also aiming for 4% are 10-year US Treasury yields.

 

The major is auctioning in a four-hour scale inventory adjustment exercise, indicating a marginally longer consolidation phase. It is crucial to note that the adjustment process entails institutional investors collecting or distributing markups. Prior momentum has remained quite bullish, thus the odds favor a premium accumulation.

 

The bullish filters are strengthened by the rising 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3758 and 1.3705, respectively.

 

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14), which will start an uptrend, is striving to enter the bullish range of 60.00–80.00.

 

Dollar bulls will position the asset to hit a new two-year high of 1.4000 should it overcome Tuesday's high of 1.3855. In May 2020, the major will hit a high of 1.4173 if the latter is breached.

 

On the other hand, the asset will move toward the psychological support at 1.3500 and then the peak from September 19 at 1.3344 if there is a strong break below the round-level support at 1.3600.