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July 19th - According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. labor market remains robust according to most key indicators. However, nearly two million Americans have been unable to find work for at least six months. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that in June, the number of long-term unemployed (unemployed for 27 consecutive weeks or more) accounted for 27.3% of the total unemployed, up 4 percentage points from a year ago. This proportion is close to its highest level since the end of 2021. Because the overall unemployment rate remains low, the size of the long-term unemployed population is not yet sufficient to cause a substantial shock to the economy. However, analysts say its ripple effects are accumulating. Preston Mooy, senior economist at Employ America, said, "We havent seen large-scale layoffs in the past few years, so the number of short-term unemployed has remained relatively stable. But at the same time, hiring activity has seen a fairly significant decline." Even if some long-term unemployed people find new jobs, the weak hiring environment means more people are constantly joining the long-term unemployed group, keeping this number consistently high.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Decisions regarding the military will continue to be made through consultation.Ukrainian President Zelensky: I spoke today with Alexander Sylsky, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.July 19th - According to CNN, the US military announced that two US troops stationed in Jordan were killed in action yesterday, and another is missing. This news is bound to further fuel anger among those in the US who oppose the war. In the first phase of the US-Iran war, 13 US military personnel have already died. Subsequently, a pilot died in a plane crash, bringing the death toll to 14. The latest casualties will bring the total number of US military deaths to 16, or even 17. This is clearly an extremely difficult moment for Trump. The American public generally does not support the war, and these casualties are likely to further erode public support for the war.According to Israels Channel 13, the United States is preparing to expand its operations against Iran by sending approximately 100 refueling aircraft to the Middle East. Israeli defense agencies are preparing for a potential major escalation in the region.

USD/CAD Bears Defeat Bulls at 1.26 as Oil Remains Firmly Bid

Drake Hampton

Apr 19, 2022 09:53

USD/CAD is a little heavy at the Tokyo open, turning red on the day and testing 1.26 at the time of writing, down from a rollover high of 1.2634 in early Asia.

 

In general, it's been a story about the US dollar at the start of the week, which is now regaining some ground. In the case of the CAD, oil prices have stabilized as well, bolstering the loonie as investors anticipate Wednesday's inflation report.

 

Investors will be watching the March Consumer Price Index for guidance on whether the Bank of Canada will continue to tighten policy following last week's half-point move to 1%. This was the central bank's largest single increase in more over two decades, and it was implemented in an attempt to rein in inflation.

 

"We expect March CPI to rise to 6.1 percent year on year, with prices rising 0.9 percent month on month," TD Securities analysts noted. "Energy will be the primary driver, with an increase of 11% in gasoline and another large contribution from food. Automobiles, clothing, and shelter should contribute to the ex. food/energy aggregate's strength, while the Bank of Canada's core inflation measures should average 3.6 percent y/y," according to TDS analysts.

US Oil Prices Increase

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil finished higher on Monday as concerns about Chinese demand amid Covid-19 lockdowns were countered by supply problems in Libya. Futures finished +1.2 percent higher at $108.21 a barrel as a result of the Libyan outages, which have heightened concerns about global supply constraints. The country's National Oil Corporation announced force majeure at an export port following the shutdown of the country's main oil field due to demonstrations over cancelled elections.

 

In thin trade, the dollar strengthened to a new two-year high, tracking higher US Treasury yields. Investors are reinvesting in the dollar and bracing for several Federal Reserve rate hikes of half a percentage point.

 

The US rate futures market has priced in a 96 percent probability of a 50 basis point tightening at the Federal Reserve's May meeting and approximately 215 basis points in cumulative rate rises in 2022, allowing for enough speculative positioning into the greenback. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield reached a three-year high of 2.884 percent.

USD/CAD

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