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July 30th - The Bank of Englands benchmark forecast indicates that as energy price shocks gradually transmit to the overall economy, the UKs annual inflation rate will remain above the 2% target until the fourth quarter of 2027. In a more moderate scenario, the Bank of England expects inflation to fall below the 2% target in the third quarter of next year. However, in a more adverse scenario, the Bank of Englands model shows that inflation could rise above 4% early next year and remain above 2% until 2029. Latest UK data shows that the annual inflation rate fell to 2.6% last month, a larger drop than market expectations.On July 30th, Kingboard Laminates (01888.HK) announced in Hong Kong that it expects to record a net profit of over HK$2.8 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, representing an increase of over 200% compared to the same period in 2025. The significant increase in net profit is mainly due to the continued supply shortage of copper-clad laminates and their upstream materials (including electronic glass fiber yarn, electronic glass fiber cloth, and copper foil), leading to a general increase in product unit prices. Sales volume of copper-clad laminates also increased compared to the same period in 2025. Furthermore, the companys strong and well-established vertically integrated business model also contributed to the net profit growth.The governor of the Central Bank of Ukraine said that Russias attack on Ukrainian port infrastructure will result in a loss of $2.5 billion in foreign exchange earnings.On July 30th, Ed Hutchings, Head of Interest Rates at Aviva Investors, stated, "The Bank of Englands decision to keep interest rates unchanged was entirely in line with expectations, but looking ahead, there is clearly still considerable uncertainty among the Monetary Policy Committee members, as evidenced by the voting results and their statements." He added, "It remains difficult to predict how things will develop. While recent employment and inflation data have provided some positive signals, investors and the Committee will likely continue to focus on the risks to the economic outlook, particularly inflation risks." He further added, "Currently, we expect the Monetary Policy Committee to continue its wait-and-see approach, assessing developments in the UK domestic situation and the Middle East."Bank of England Governor Bailey will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.

U.S. oil sees a saw near US$76, OPEC+ fears no urgency to take action

Oct 26, 2021 10:57

In the European market on Monday (October 4), the US crude oil futures price was trading at a flat level near US$76. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the Allied Powers (OPEC+) including Russia will hold a meeting on Monday to discuss the increase in production in November. The meeting may decide whether the recent price rebound can be sustained as the world recovers intermittently from the COVID-19 pandemic.

As of press time, U.S. crude oil futures prices are reported at US$75.91/barrel, up 0.05%, and have been rising for the past six weeks; Brent crude oil futures prices are at US$79.37/barrel, up 0.1%, up 1.5% last week, and the fourth consecutive week of rising .



Due to supply disruptions and recovery in global demand, oil prices rose, and Brent crude oil prices rose to a nearly three-year high above $80 a barrel last week. ANZ Banking Research Center stated in a report that risk appetite has been continuously enhanced by confidence in the strong recovery of the global economy, and investors are paying attention to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

The meeting is scheduled to be held by OPEC+ later today. As demand in certain regions of the world recovers faster than expected, some countries require OPEC to increase production to help reduce oil prices, and OPEC is under pressure.

OPEC+ agreed in July to increase production by 400,000 barrels per month until at least April 2022, and to phase out the existing reduction of 5.8 million barrels per day. However, four OPEC+ sources recently told well-known foreign media that oil-producing countries are considering increasing production beyond the agreement's expectations. Since OPEC+ last meeting decided to increase production in October, it will increase production in November at the earliest.

Market observers said that it is expected that OPEC+ may consider increasing its output in November, exceeding the original plan of 400,000 barrels per day. OPEC's model shows that oil demand will exceed supply in the next two months. The oil market has tightened significantly recently, and the surge in natural gas prices before the winter has also led to the need for more petroleum products for power generation, which may boost overall oil demand.

Analysts said that OPEC+'s decision to increase supply to the market may stabilize oil prices, but this is by no means an easy task. Such a proposal may trigger a lot of debate and disagreement.

Amrita Sen, co-founder and chief analyst of Energy Aspects, a consulting firm, said OPEC+ will stick to its plan to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day. I am not saying that the increase will not exceed 400,000 barrels, but for the time being, we think this is impossible. Saudi Arabia is very, very eager to reduce volatility, both up and down. This is the key. If prices suddenly spike, they will react quickly.

Amrita Sen said that the price of oil is still in the range of US$70 to US$80 per barrel. As long as we are within this range, the urgency of taking action outside of the current agreement is limited.

The rise in oil prices has also been driven by more substantial increases in natural gas prices. The price of natural gas has soared by 300%. At comparable prices, the current transaction price is around US$200 per barrel, prompting people to switch to fuel oil and other crude oil products to meet the needs of power generation and other industries.

The latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group crude oil futures market showed that last Friday traders cut their open positions for the second day in a row, this time reducing about 0.1,800. At the same time, trading volume fell by nearly 321,000 contracts, reversing the previous increase.

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