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On March 15th, Matt Reed, Vice President of the geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports, stated that an attack on Kharg Island could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil-producing countries. He said, "Iran will retaliate in kind." The United States warned on Friday that if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Islands oil facilities could become the next target. Reed warned that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be to find alternative energy supplies. "At least 10 million barrels of oil are trapped in the Gulf every day, plus more than 4 million barrels of refined petroleum products and tens of billions of cubic feet of liquefied natural gas, with no easy alternatives." The International Energy Agency has announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in history, with 32 member countries planning to release approximately 400 million barrels of oil. However, Reed believes this measure will have limited effect, stating, "By the time the oil gets to the market, it may be too little, too late." He described it as nothing more than a "band-aid."On March 15th, local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that in the past 48 hours, the US and Israel had launched attacks on several civilian industrial facilities in Iran, resulting in the deaths of several workers. The statement said that after setbacks in its confrontation with Iran, the US and Israel have turned to attacking non-military industrial facilities. Iran warned that US companies in the region should withdraw from their facilities and urged nearby residents to stay away from industrial areas with US capital involvement to avoid potential attacks.The Swiss government has discussed the US request for military overflight. In accordance with the principle of neutrality, the Federal Council rejected two requests related to the war with Iran.Local officials said operations at the Lanaz refinery in Iraq’s Erbil province have been suspended until the fire is extinguished and the damage is assessed.On March 15th, Colombian Energy Minister Edwin Palma posted on the X platform that Venezuelas state-owned oil company PDVSA intends to terminate its contract with Colombias state-owned oil company Ecopetrol regarding the Antonio Ricardo pipeline, citing insufficient investment in its maintenance. Palma stated that the Colombian government plans to meet with the US government next Monday to discuss lifting sanctions in an effort to normalize commercial relations with Venezuela. Palma also indicated that Colombia has approved a license to resume imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Venezuela at a rate of 1.26 million gallons per month.

U.S. crude oil trading strategy on October 14: oil price rises are suspended, activists can still do more on dips

Oct 26, 2021 11:03

US crude oil rose slightly on Thursday (October 14), and short-term oil prices still have a greater chance of rising, but the possibility of a callback is not ruled out. It is recommended that conservatives wait and see, and radicals do more on dips.


Daily level: The short-term rise of oil prices is temporarily suspended, but the supply and demand pattern behind it has not changed, so there is still a great opportunity for rising in the market outlook.

The technical overbought signal still exists, which has become a negative factor restricting oil prices. The possibility of oil price correction is not ruled out in the day, but the rise is still the main theme.

In terms of operation, it is recommended that the shorts leave the market temporarily, the activists can continue to buy more on dips, and the conservatives temporarily wait and see. At present, the overall oil price is still in the sideways stage.

The initial resistance above focuses on the October 11 high of 82.18, and further attention to the psychological barriers of 83 and 84.

The initial support below focuses on the 5-day moving average of 79.06, and further attention to the July 6 high of 76.98 and the 20-day moving average of 76.13.

(U.S. crude oil daily chart)

Resistance levels: 82.18; 83.00; 84.00
Support levels: 79.06; 76.98; 76.13

Short-term operating suggestions: conservatives wait and see, radicals do more on dips.

At 14:44 GMT+8, US crude oil was quoted at US$81.09 per barrel.