U.S. cotton futures skyrocketed and hit a 10-year high, clothing spending may push CPI to a new high

The main contract for US cotton futures trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to rise this week. On Wednesday, the Asian market touched the price of $1.1393 per pound, again reaching the highest price since September 2011. In the past 10 trading days, US cotton futures prices have risen by 25%. This is partly due to investors’ concerns about the prospects for the new cotton harvest under the influence of abnormal weather, and also because global demand levels are rising further.

According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, in the sales year beginning on August 1, U.S. cotton sales to China were 83% higher than the same period last year. The reason is that Chinese textile companies are accelerating the recovery of production capacity to meet the global market’s demand for apparel products. need. This makes the Chinese market step up imports of American cotton. The US Department of Agriculture report also predicts that China’s cotton consumption in this marketing year is expected to reach 41 million bales, equivalent to 8.9 million metric tons. However, when the local production capacity is insufficient, and the other import market India is also due to the outbreak of insect pests, the production capacity and quality have decreased.

With the beginning of the harvest of US crops, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, fund traders have also increased their bets on long positions in cotton. The current progress of the U.S. cotton harvest is 13%, of which 62% are of good or good quality, which is 40% higher than last year's. However, the market is still worried that the hurricane weather encountered in the southern region may affect the final harvest situation, which, together with rising export demand, has driven cotton prices to continue to rise.

The analysts also pointed out that after cotton prices continue to rise, they may face pressure from long-term profit exchanges. At the same time, with the peak harvest season of imports from the two cotton-producing regions in the United States and China, the replenishment of inventories may also drive futures prices to fall, but it is decided The fundamental market trend is still on the demand side. If the lack of electricity in China's domestic market is later alleviated to ensure that the start of the textile industry is not excessively affected, cotton prices will remain firm.

The high international cotton prices, in turn, will also put upward pressure on the prices of clothing and accessories produced in the United States or in other parts of the world. In particular, while the price of cotton has risen, the prices of various chemical fiber textile raw materials have also risen due to the impact of high oil prices, making the clothing industry lack of room for mutual substitution of demand. As a result, in the following Christmas consumption season, the American people's spending on new clothes will increase, which also means that the already high level of consumer inflation may face further upward pressure.