EUR/USD 1.18527
-0.119%
Gold 3672.01
-0.483%
Oil 64.032
-0.213%
USD/JPY 146.516
0.046%
GBP/USD 1.36367
-0.059%
GBP/JPY 199.805
-0.005%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
According to the Wall Street Journal: Ford Motor (FN) further cuts 1,000 jobs in Germany due to continued weak demand for electric vehicles.The European Parliaments head of metals will visit Kyiv, MEPs said.September 17th news: On September 17th local time, Krasnodar Airport in southern Russia received the first flight since its suspension of operations. This is also the first time the airport has resumed formal operations since its closure since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.

U.S. cotton futures skyrocketed and hit a 10-year high, clothing spending may push CPI to a new high

Oct 26, 2021 10:59

The main contract for US cotton futures trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to rise this week. On Wednesday, the Asian market touched the price of $1.1393 per pound, again reaching the highest price since September 2011. In the past 10 trading days, US cotton futures prices have risen by 25%. This is partly due to investors’ concerns about the prospects for the new cotton harvest under the influence of abnormal weather, and also because global demand levels are rising further.

According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, in the sales year beginning on August 1, U.S. cotton sales to China were 83% higher than the same period last year. The reason is that Chinese textile companies are accelerating the recovery of production capacity to meet the global market’s demand for apparel products. need. This makes the Chinese market step up imports of American cotton. The US Department of Agriculture report also predicts that China’s cotton consumption in this marketing year is expected to reach 41 million bales, equivalent to 8.9 million metric tons. However, when the local production capacity is insufficient, and the other import market India is also due to the outbreak of insect pests, the production capacity and quality have decreased.

With the beginning of the harvest of US crops, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, fund traders have also increased their bets on long positions in cotton. The current progress of the U.S. cotton harvest is 13%, of which 62% are of good or good quality, which is 40% higher than last year's. However, the market is still worried that the hurricane weather encountered in the southern region may affect the final harvest situation, which, together with rising export demand, has driven cotton prices to continue to rise.

The analysts also pointed out that after cotton prices continue to rise, they may face pressure from long-term profit exchanges. At the same time, with the peak harvest season of imports from the two cotton-producing regions in the United States and China, the replenishment of inventories may also drive futures prices to fall, but it is decided The fundamental market trend is still on the demand side. If the lack of electricity in China's domestic market is later alleviated to ensure that the start of the textile industry is not excessively affected, cotton prices will remain firm.

The high international cotton prices, in turn, will also put upward pressure on the prices of clothing and accessories produced in the United States or in other parts of the world. In particular, while the price of cotton has risen, the prices of various chemical fiber textile raw materials have also risen due to the impact of high oil prices, making the clothing industry lack of room for mutual substitution of demand. As a result, in the following Christmas consumption season, the American people's spending on new clothes will increase, which also means that the already high level of consumer inflation may face further upward pressure.

Suggestion