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On September 5th, U.S. Commerce Secretary Andrew Lutnick was appointed to review transactions between the Pentagon and companies under Cerberus Capital Management to address potential conflicts of interest. According to U.S. officials, the Department of Defense has assigned Lutnick to review these transactions. Cerberus is a private equity firm founded by Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg, with significant investments in defense and national security, including several companies that have received Pentagon contracts. After joining the government, Feinberg transferred his business assets to a trust for his adult children. Reports indicate that Lutnicks review of arrangements involving Cerberus is intended to exceed existing Department of Defense ethical guidelines. However, Lutnick previously led Cantor Fitzgerald, which has had a business relationship with Cerberus for over a decade and helped manage related investment funds. Some of Cerberus defense subsidiaries recently secured Pentagon contracts, including a $10 billion, 26-year Army helicopter pilot training contract for M1 Support Services, and a $90 million defense contract for hypersonic testing company Stratolaunch. It remains unclear whether Lutnik reviewed these transactions, and the specific scope of his review.Fitch: The rating upgrade reflects the strengthening of Portugals public finances, including the expected downward trend in government debt.Barclays: Oil outflows from the Middle East are higher than in the early stages of the conflict, but the market remains in a state of shortage, and the inventory buffer is now greatly reduced.According to Al Arabiya TV: Lebanese official data shows that Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon tonight have killed three people.On September 5th, stronger-than-expected US August jobs data triggered renewed bets on a possible Federal Reserve rate hike, but Wall Street risk assets did not show significant panic. Data showed increased resilience in the job market, leading traders to raise their expectations for a rate hike at the Feds September 16th meeting. US Treasuries experienced a sell-off, the dollar strengthened, and the S&P 500 fell on Friday but still recorded a weekly gain. Unlike previous rate hikes that often triggered capital outflows, this round of bond market adjustments has not yet spread to other risk assets. Credit spreads remain low, limiting pressure on corporate bonds and stock index markets. JPMorgan Chase stated that US Treasury liquidity has deteriorated significantly, but corporate bond ETFs and stock index futures markets have not yet experienced similar tension. Market resilience mainly stems from economic growth and corporate profits, especially as AI investment continues to drive large-scale capital expenditures by technology companies. Analysts point out that the market is currently more focused on whether yields will rise rapidly than on the jobs data itself. The market focus will shift to inflation data and whether the Fed will reconsider its rate hike path due to inflationary pressures. If yields rise further rapidly, it could force investors to reduce their risk exposure.

UK GDP comes into focus when the EUR/GBP crosses a hurdle near 0.8440

Alina Haynes

Aug 11, 2022 12:03

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During the early Tokyo trading session, selling pressure developed on the EUR/GBP exchange rate towards the significant resistance level (R) of 0.8440. Prior to then, the cross had reversed after a sudden decline to about 0.8420. The German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which measures consumer price changes, held stable at 8.5%, while the asset declined on Wednesday after breaching a crucial support level of 0.8440. Furthermore, Germany's inflation rate matched expectations.

 

It is interesting that decreased oil prices have led to a dramatic decline in inflation in the US economy. The decline in oil prices should also contain inflation in Germany. This suggests that the ongoing energy crisis in Germany brought on by Russia shutting down a crucial gas pipeline to Europe has been unaffected by the reduction in oil prices.

 

Investors sold off the common currency's bulls. The multiplying effects of the inflation issue provide the European Central Bank (ECB) with an ever-more challenging situation.

 

The market was expecting the UK's GDP to grow by 0.3% in the second quarter, but analysts estimate a 0.2% decline. The 1.3% decrease in the UK GDP is anticipated to more than outweigh the 0.5% monthly expansion. Additionally, annual GDP predictions were reduced from 8.7% to 2.8%.

 

It is also anticipated that manufacturing output will fall short of expectations. An annual decline of 1.3% from the previous 2.3% is projected. However, the rate of industrial production increase each year might be between 1.4% and 1.6%.


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