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Customs data showed that Switzerlands gold exports to the United States in August fell sharply by more than 99% from the previous month to 0.3 tons.1. Decision Background: Wednesdays data showed that UK inflation remained high at 3.8% in August, nearly double the Bank of Englands 2% target. Services inflation remained elevated, while inflation expectations rose. Economic growth slowed in the second quarter, with demand showing signs of weakness. 2. Interest Rate Level: The market generally expects the Bank of England to hold interest rates steady at 4% at this meeting. Key focus will be on guidance for further easing this year. 3. Vote Split: The market expects a 7-2 vote to keep interest rates unchanged (compared to a 5-4 split in August), with Taylor and Dhingra dissenting (Taylor voted for a 50 basis point cut in August); Deputy Governor Ramsden may also join the dissenting vote. 4. Forward Guidance: The Bank of England stated in August that "the restrictiveness of monetary policy has decreased," which the market interpreted as hawkish. This meeting will highlight whether this statement appears again or is removed or weakened. 5. Quantitative Tightening: Due to heightened bond market volatility (earlier this month, 20- and 30-year bond yields rose to their highest levels since 1998), the market expects the Bank of England to reduce its annual bond reduction from £100 billion to £60 billion to £75 billion. It is also likely to limit sales of long-term UK government bonds, favoring shorter-term bonds. 6. Market Expectations: Currently, the market generally expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates unchanged this year, with a small chance of a 25 basis point cut. A sustained cycle of rate cuts will begin in 2026, with cumulative reductions of approximately 50 basis points.On September 18th, economists at ING Bank stated in a report that downside risks to the US job market were the primary rationale for the Federal Reserves decision to cut interest rates; this rationale is unsurprising given recent weak employment data. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk-management-based rate cut" because, on the surface, the US economy appears to be in decent shape. However, economists noted that a deeper analysis reveals a shift in the situation, most notably in the job market. The economists also stated that the Feds upward revision of its growth and inflation forecasts, while simultaneously lowering its unemployment forecast, suggests that policymakers believe that swift and forceful action in the coming months will yield tangible results for the economy. They believe the Fed will ultimately cut interest rates by more than currently implied.Novo Nordisk (NVO.N) continued to rise in pre-market trading, currently up 4.7%, after the company released results of a study on semaglutide.On September 18th, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday, market sentiment improved and the cost of insuring euro-denominated credit against default declined. The Feds rate cut is boosting global investment appetite for risky assets. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed that the European Cross Credit Default Swap Index, a measure of credit default swaps on euro high-yield bonds, fell 3 basis points to 248 basis points.

UK GDP comes into focus when the EUR/GBP crosses a hurdle near 0.8440

Alina Haynes

Aug 11, 2022 12:03

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During the early Tokyo trading session, selling pressure developed on the EUR/GBP exchange rate towards the significant resistance level (R) of 0.8440. Prior to then, the cross had reversed after a sudden decline to about 0.8420. The German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which measures consumer price changes, held stable at 8.5%, while the asset declined on Wednesday after breaching a crucial support level of 0.8440. Furthermore, Germany's inflation rate matched expectations.

 

It is interesting that decreased oil prices have led to a dramatic decline in inflation in the US economy. The decline in oil prices should also contain inflation in Germany. This suggests that the ongoing energy crisis in Germany brought on by Russia shutting down a crucial gas pipeline to Europe has been unaffected by the reduction in oil prices.

 

Investors sold off the common currency's bulls. The multiplying effects of the inflation issue provide the European Central Bank (ECB) with an ever-more challenging situation.

 

The market was expecting the UK's GDP to grow by 0.3% in the second quarter, but analysts estimate a 0.2% decline. The 1.3% decrease in the UK GDP is anticipated to more than outweigh the 0.5% monthly expansion. Additionally, annual GDP predictions were reduced from 8.7% to 2.8%.

 

It is also anticipated that manufacturing output will fall short of expectations. An annual decline of 1.3% from the previous 2.3% is projected. However, the rate of industrial production increase each year might be between 1.4% and 1.6%.