• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Bank of Japan: We also need to pay attention to the risk that food prices may exceed expectations due to rising raw material market prices.Bank of Japan: Exchange rate fluctuations are now more likely to affect prices than in the past.On April 28th, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged, but three of its nine policy board members proposed a rate hike, reflecting the banks concerns about inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. The 6-3 vote was the largest split since Governor Kazuo Ueda took office. The BOJ decided to keep its short-term policy rate at 0.75% at the end of its two-day meeting, in line with market expectations. Board members Hajime Takada, Naoki Tamura, and Junko Nakagawa dissented, advocating for a rate hike to 1.0%. Nakagawa argued that despite the continued uncertainty in the Middle East, price risks were skewed to the upside in a loose financial environment, considering economic developments. Tamura believed that given the significantly upside price risks, the BOJ should set its policy rate as close as possible to the neutral rate. Takada argued that Japans price stability objective had been largely achieved, and that price risks were clearly skewed to the upside due to the secondary effects of price increases caused by overseas developments. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to explain the decision to the media later.The Bank of Japan stated that while strong business fixed investment could drive global economic growth, if corporate profits fail to expand in tandem with such investment, there could be downward pressure and asset prices could change.On April 28th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan." At the conference, a relevant official from the China Meteorological Administration pointed out that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, meteorological service supply will be further optimized, deeply integrated into and empowering the modern economic system, and the strength, depth, and effectiveness of meteorological services will be expanded. Facing key areas such as energy, transportation, and the low-altitude economy, the meteorological department will promote meteorological services to cover the entire industrial chain, focusing on incorporating meteorological standards into infrastructure construction from the outset. For example, in the transportation sector, a threshold triggering mechanism will be explored, linking speed limits, service shutdowns, and equipment reinforcement when key indicators such as forecast visibility and road surface temperature reach thresholds. For different scenarios such as new energy bases in desert areas and offshore wind power, the level of regional and station-level power forecast services will be improved. In the low-altitude domain, flight safety and operational efficiency are significantly affected by meteorological conditions, placing higher demands on meteorological services.

The global energy crisis threatens supply, and U.S. oil has risen by 5% this week and once rose to the 80 mark

Eden

Oct 26, 2021 11:00

On Friday (October 8) U.S. crude oil rose 1.29 US dollars in late trading, or 1.65%, to close at 79.59 US dollars per barrel. The cumulative increase this week was 5.08%, marking the seventh consecutive week of gains, the longest consecutive week since December last year. rise. Oil prices rose by 0.63 US dollars, an increase of 0.77%, to close at 82.58 US dollars per barrel, a cumulative increase of 4.22% this week. US gasoline futures also closed at their highest level since October 2014. While the global energy crisis boosted demand, OPEC+ oil-producing countries still maintained tight supply. At the same time, the US Department of Energy stated that it has not announced immediate actions to lower oil prices, such as releasing strategic oil reserves. This further supports the oil market.

In the face of improving fuel demand, the energy market has tightened, and many people worry that the cold winter may further tighten the supply of natural gas. The rise in oil prices was stimulated by the soaring prices of natural gas in Europe, which prompted power generation companies to switch to oil for power generation. There are many signs this week that supply will still be restricted. Saudi Aramco said the global natural gas shortage has boosted crude oil demand for power generation and heating.

John Kilduff, a partner of Again Capital in New York, said that the fundamental background is tight supply, which will continue to push crude oil prices to rise steadily. The soaring natural gas price indicates a surge in demand for crude oil this winter.

On Friday, the call option premium exceeded the put option premium for the first time since October 2019. The bullish trade in the oil options market has been very active in recent weeks. Thousands of contracts were traded last week. If the oil price rises to US$100 or even US$200 per barrel, profits will be made. On Tuesday, WTI call options volume reached its highest level since March 2020. In the past 7 days, the open interest of call options with strike prices ranging from $90 to $95 has increased by approximately 23,000.

ICAP energy expert Scott Shelton said that severe winter weather "increased the upside potential of this market, and this skew will last for several months." The so-called call skew means that call options are more expensive than similar put options. The situation is extraordinary in the crude oil market. Generally, put options are more expensive, which partly reflects the tendency of producers to buy put options to hedge their output.

According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, as of the week of October 5, the speculative net long position of WTI crude oil futures increased by 8,902 to 325,578. The Brent crude oil net long position held by speculators on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) increased by 3,723 contracts to 332,677 contracts, a record high in more than six months.

US Baker Hughes Oil Services said that as of October 8, the total number of wells drilled in the United States was 533, which is the fifth consecutive week of adding rigs. The total number of oil rigs was 433, an increase of 5 from last week.

(U.S. Oil Hour Chart)