EUR/USD 1.15774
-0.128%
Gold 4307.14
-0.485%
Oil 90.446
1.202%
USD/JPY 160.337
0.102%
GBP/USD 1.35039
-0.083%
GBP/JPY 216.521
0.024%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On September 2nd, Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) stated that a September rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is a foregone conclusion. The RBNZ is expected to hint at further rate hikes before the cash rate reaches or exceeds the neutral level, with a peak of approximately 3.5%. However, BNZs internal view is that the RBNZ will ultimately raise rates by 25 basis points at each meeting, reaching 4.0% by May 2027. Downside risks to the economy are more prominent, including a potential El Niño-induced recession, election-related delays in recovery, and a broader global asset price correction. On the upside, structural inflationary pressures may continue to accumulate regardless of the RBNZs response. BNZs core view stems from the RBNZs July statement that "further reduction in monetary stimulus may still be necessary" to bring inflation back to target. BNZ expects inflation to remain above the target range until mid-2027, forecasting an annual CPI of 3.7% for the September quarter, significantly higher than the RBNZs own forecast of 3.3%.On Wednesday, September 2, the Hang Seng Index opened down 48.91 points, or 0.19%, at 25,280.82; the Hang Seng Tech Index opened down 18.66 points, or 0.41%, at 4,532.22; the H-share Index opened down 15.39 points, or 0.18%, at 8,447.25; and the Red Chip Index opened down 8.28 points, or 0.2%, at 4,129.92.Hong Kong stocks opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.19% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.41%. Biopharmaceutical stocks led the gains, while gold stocks fell sharply. Zijin Mining International (02259.HK) fell more than 4%.On September 2nd, the highest 7-day annualized yield of Tencent Wealth Managements "Current Account +" was 1.1340%, and the lowest was 0.7020%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of WeChat Pays "Lingqian Tong" was 1.1010%, and the lowest was 0.8700%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of Alipays "Yuebao" was 1.0650%, and the lowest was 0.8690%.September 2nd - ASB Bank of New Zealand stated that with financial markets having almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, there is limited room for a hawkish surprise in the decision itself. The ASB expects at least one more rate hike before the end of the year, with a peak rate of around 3.3%, slightly below current market pricing. If this occurs as expected, it could lead to a mildly dovish repricing at the front end of the New Zealand yield curve, putting some pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The ASB also noted that tightening financial conditions (including a stronger trade-weighted index and rising swap rates) are a theme the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cite, weakening the case for a particularly hawkish statement. Given the two-way risks to the medium-term inflation outlook, currency and interest rate markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to New Zealand data in the coming months, regardless of Wednesdays outcome.

The euro against the dollar is under pressure at the 1.16 line, and multiple factors drag the euro down

Oct 26, 2021 10:55

On Monday (October 18), the euro remained weak against the US dollar, and the exchange rate opened at around 1.1600, but failed to preserve its upward momentum. The current exchange rate is trading below 1.1600.


Following the rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields, the U.S. dollar rose above 94.00. Concerns that rising energy prices will push up inflation and optimism in US retail sales push up Treasury bond yields. Investors also expect the Fed to start reducing asset purchases as soon as November, while the European Central Bank maintains a dovish stance to suppress the euro. The expectation of a weak global economy has been strengthened within the day, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, and the US dollar is favored.

European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the central bank will continue to provide support to the euro zone economy because the impact of the epidemic is still there. She previously said that the inflation rate is "basically short-lived." In addition, Klass Knot, a member of the European Central Bank Management Committee, ignores inflation concerns and the prospect of short-term interest rate hikes.

In terms of economic data, industrial production in the Eurozone fell by 1.6% in August, and increased by 1.4% after revisions to the previous value.

At present, traders are waiting for US industrial production data, and Fed officials Quarles' speech to seek new trading momentum.

Technology prospects


The daily chart shows that the euro fell against the US dollar in early October, staying below 1.1600, and on Tuesday tested the year's low near 1.1524. The euro against the dollar is already below the 21-day moving average and the 50-day moving average, maintaining a downside risk.

Now, if the euro against the dollar breaks through the 20-day moving average of 1.1618, there may be a daily rise. The first upside target for the EUR/USD will be the 1.1650 resistance level, followed by the September 29 high of 1.1690. The MACD indicator is oversold. If the MACD indicator continues to run upwards, the long target for the euro against the US dollar is 1.1750.

Or, if the euro/dollar breaks below the low, the shorts will once again dominate, and the support will be at the 1.1555 level. Next, market participants will test the low of 1.1524. If the euro against the dollar falls below the above level, it will test the 2018 low.

UOB foreign exchange strategist: the euro against the dollar will still try to rise to 1.1640 in the next few weeks


24-hour view: "Yesterday we thought that'the euro does not rule out the possibility of further rise, but it is unlikely to hit the important resistance level of 1.1640.'Our view is correct, because the euro rose to 1.1624 and then fell. The upward pressure weakened, the euro did not It is very likely to strengthen further. The euro is more likely to consolidate in the 1.1570/1.1620 range today."

1-3 week outlook: "Our view has not changed much since October 14. The recent decline has ended. The rapid rebound has gained momentum, and the euro may rise to 1.1640. The euro does not rule out the possibility of further rise, but it is not easy to break through 1.1640. As long as it does not fall below 1.1540 in the next few days, the upward trend will remain unchanged."

(Daily chart of the euro against the dollar)

At 17:15 GMT+8, the euro traded at 1.1584 against the dollar.

Suggestion