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Conflict Status: 1. Ukraine claims energy facilities were attacked, causing power outages in multiple locations. 2. Russian Security Service: Russia and Belarus jointly prevented Ukraine from transporting over 500 explosive devices to Russia. 3. According to Interfax news agency: The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian troops have taken control of Zapsilya and Ryasny in eastern Ukraine. Peace Negotiations: 1. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: There are currently no preconditions for strategic stability dialogue with the United States. 2. US Secretary of State Rubio: There are currently no ongoing or scheduled negotiations between the United States and Ukraine. Other Developments: 1. The United Kingdom announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. 2. Japan sent officials to Russia to "promote communication." 3. The European Council extended sanctions against relevant Russian individuals and entities. 4. Russia claims the United States did not issue visas to Russian officials to attend Security Council meetings. 5. The United Kingdom and Poland will sign a defense and security agreement to curb the Russian threat. 6. A court ruled that the European Clearing Bank must immediately compensate the Central Bank of Russia approximately €200 billion. 7. According to RIA Novosti: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov explained the reasons that led Russia to decide to attack Kyiv during a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio.On May 27, according to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Trade Representative Greer said on Tuesday that President Trumps 10% global tariffs could be reinstated after their July expiration, noting that the relevant regulations do not explicitly state whether the president can reinstate these tariffs after the legal deadline. Trump imposed the 10% global tariffs in February under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which are set to last a maximum of 150 days and were originally scheduled to expire in July and be replaced by new tariffs. Speaking at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, Greer said that the law may allow for the reinstatement of these tariffs, as the regulations only specify the expiration date and not when they can be reinstated. Greer did not say whether the Trump administration would seek to extend these tariffs, but stated that he "cannot imagine" Congress intending to limit the presidents power to use Section 122 tariffs to once per term.① Iran 1. Iran stated it would retaliate fiercely if war resumed and would block regional oil exports. 2. Irans Supreme Leader stated the US would no longer have a "safe haven" in the Middle East. 3. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard declared that Iran has the right to respond to any US violation of the ceasefire agreement. It locked onto and shot down a US MQ-9 drone. 4. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Iran would respond to the USs blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement. ② The US 1. Trump: Irans enriched uranium will be immediately transferred to the US for destruction; a better option is to destroy it on-site (or at another mutually acceptable location) with close cooperation and coordination with Iran, and the entire process and related matters must be witnessed by the Atomic Energy Commission (or its equivalent). 2. At a crucial moment in US-Iran negotiations, Trump spoke with Netanyahu. 3. US media reported that as peace talks with Iran approach a critical juncture, Trump will make a rare visit to Camp David on Wednesday to hold a cabinet meeting. 4. Trump: Given the potential for severe weather tomorrow, a cabinet meeting will be held at the White House, and the cabinet trip to Camp David will be postponed. ③ Israel 1. The Israeli military claims to have killed a key Hamas weapons production figure, Mohammed Abu Mahlou. 2. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: Israel launched an attack in Gaza on the leader of a new Hamas armed branch. 3. The Israeli military issued an emergency mobilization order to expand its military operations outside the Yellow Line in Lebanon. 4. The Israeli military issued evacuation warnings to residents of two towns in the Bekaa region of Lebanon, anticipating possible airstrikes. 5. Israeli media reported on the 26th that the Israeli military crossed the ceasefire line into southern Lebanon to launch a ground offensive. 6. Israel strives to retain its freedom of action in Lebanon within the Iran agreement. 7. The Israeli military launched airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, killing several militants. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. The Wall Street Journal reported that US military officials revealed that the US Navy has resumed assisting ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 1. The report was later admitted to being incorrect: "Project Freedom" had not been restarted, and the US military was merely "quietly" assisting ships in transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 2. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated that 25 oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian permission in the past 24 hours. 3. The UKs Office for Maritime Trade Operations: An oil tanker (near Oman) reported an external explosion, located on its port stern, near the waterline. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. The US Central Command stated it conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran; US officials: This does not mean the ceasefire has ended. 2. Qatari Foreign Ministry: Reports of Qatar contributing $12 billion to facilitate the agreement are completely false. 3. US Secretary of State Rubio: The Strait of Hormuz must remain open; negotiations on the wording of the Iran agreement may "take several days." 4. Iranian media denied claims that Iran and the US had reached a memorandum of understanding. 5. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: Sources close to the negotiating team stated that if a potential memorandum of understanding is reached with the United States, the $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds must be unfrozen. 6. Sources stated that the unfreezing of Iranian funds is the last major obstacle between Iran and the United States, and is being resolved through mediation in Qatar. This has not yet been officially confirmed. 7. Middle Eastern officials: Despite the attack on Iran, the diplomatic process will continue. 8. Iranian President: Ready to reach a "dignified" framework agreement. 9. According to Lebanese television station Al-Mayadeen: An advisor to Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that if the United States "plays word games," Tehran will withdraw from negotiations.U.S. Trade Representative Greer: There has been progress with the EU on reducing tariffs, but further efforts are needed on non-tariff barriers.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 4.8-magnitude earthquake in the Fiji region.

The election battle has already started. Who will benefit the gold price?

Eden

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

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If Trump loses power, gold prices may rise before the election

Under the epidemic, the Federal Reserve introduced an unlimited amount of easing policy, coupled with Congress’s rescue plan, which triggered a bubble in the financial market. The market risk was very high when it was realized, but because it was the election, the breakpoint was still not reached. In addition, the market generally believes that Trump’s election is beneficial to the stock market. Therefore, if Trump loses its position in the election, some investors may withdraw their funds from the stock market and turn to assets they consider safer, such as gold. High gold prices. This situation may occur before the general election, so changes in the election situation must not be ignored.


Biden's 7.3 trillion dollar policy or favorable gold market

If Biden is elected, it will undoubtedly ease the conflict at home and abroad and effectively suppress the epidemic. However, because the United States has suffered severely due to the epidemic, after Biden is elected, the chances of financial markets returning to before the epidemic are not low. The price of gold will return to the economy and fundamentals and will be affected by changes in the quantitative easing policy.


Judging from the current situation, the Fed stated earlier that unlimited easing will continue until 2023, which will allow gold prices to be supported to a certain extent. Therefore, at least before 2023, the election of Biden as president has limited impact on gold prices.


In addition, Biden proposes to launch a spending plan of US$7.3 trillion in the next 10 years. Some analysts believe that this is good for gold prices. Because of the increase in US government debt, the dollar will weaken and the price of gold will rise.


Even if Trump is re-elected, he will face a weak US economy, and the market's safe-haven demand for gold will not decrease.


Finally, if the elected president and the Congress belong to the same party, it is undoubtedly the most beneficial for governance. However, if the president and Congress split the party, the power of the president is weakened and domestic conflicts increase, which may benefit the price of gold.


If it is a real gold investment, the current gold price is under pressure and you can consider entering the market. However, if you participate in the form of leverage, you must pay attention to the current market sentiment, as the price of gold fluctuates greatly during the general election.