The dollar against the yen is hovering near a three-year high! Risk sentiment remains weak

After testing a three-year high of 114.46 in Asian markets in early trading on Monday (October 18), USD/JPY consolidated above 114.00, and the bulls paused before resuming the upward trend.


The exchange rate closely follows the trend of U.S. Treasury yields, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields are also trending. Yields rose again and pushed up the currency pair to the multi-year top it hit last Friday.

However, the 10-year Treasury bond yield seems to be unable to break through 1.60% without follow-up buying, limiting the exchange rate to a 3-year high.

The decline in the exchange rate is still limited by the strengthening of the US dollar, because the market risk tone remains weak.

Concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth have resurfaced within the day, and the surge in oil prices has weakened market sentiment and supported the dollar bulls.

At the same time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that he has no plans to change the sales tax. Since there are relatively few data in the United States, the exchange rate may be affected by broader market sentiment and yield price movements.

However, as the Fed’s hawkish expectations continue to rise, the Fed’s speech will attract more attention.

USD/JPY technical outlook

FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia explained, “The first resistance was at 114.54, the high of October 4, 2018, which is a key level. The exchange rate has been blocked four times in four years. If it breaks through this level, the exchange rate will rise further. Clear the obstacles and point to key resistance levels, such as the high of 115.37 on January 27, 2017, and then the high of 117.52 on January 9, 2017. On the other hand, if it breaks 114, it will open the door to decline, and the current RSI will exceed purchase. "

(Daily chart of USD/JPY)

At GMT+8 16:36, the USD/JPY traded at 114.35.