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Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.59% and the Tech Index up 1.9%. Innovent Biologics (01801.HK) opened more than 4.5% higher, while Baidu (09888.HK), China Life (02628.HK), and JD Health (06618.HK) opened more than 3% higher.On Monday, February 9th, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened 422.54 points higher, or 1.59%, at 26,982.49; the Hang Seng Tech Index opened 101.43 points higher, or 1.9%, at 5,447.63; the H-share Index opened 139.19 points higher, or 1.54%, at 9,170.57; and the Red Chip Index opened 38.85 points higher, or 0.89%, at 4,399.55.The yield on Japans five-year government bonds rose 3 basis points to 1.715%.The yield on Japans two-year government bonds rose 1.5 basis points to 1.29%.On February 9th, Nan Hua Futures reported that a research report indicated the fundamentals for a platinum-palladium bull market remain intact in the medium to long term. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain its loose monetary policy stance in the first half of 2026, and increased central bank gold purchases, safe-haven demand, and investment demand will continue to push precious metal prices higher. While the nomination of Walsh, a supply-side economist, as Fed Chair has raised concerns about a potential breakdown in the support logic for precious metals (as Fed balance sheet reduction boosts dollar credibility), the US lacks the conditions for producing another "Volcker" before a disruptive breakthrough in AI technology. Furthermore, there is a conflict between "Trumps urgent need to lower medium- and long-term interest rates under midterm election pressure" and "balance sheet reduction pushing up term premiums and driving up long-term interest rates." Although the Fed expanded its balance sheet at the end of December last year, resulting in marginal improvement in liquidity, narrow reserves remain low, and dollar liquidity is tighter than it has been since the pandemic. Under these multiple pressures, Walshs nomination has limited impact, and a trend of liquidity expansion is highly probable. Given the high volatility in platinum and palladium, position control is crucial. Due to the discontinuity between domestic and international trading sessions, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overnight trading session in other countries. Investors should pay attention to international market prices and be wary of opening gaps. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)

The chances of a bearish reversal for the USD/CHF rise as bears test the 200-EMA

Daniel Rogers

Jul 19, 2022 11:59

 截屏2022-07-19 上午10.03.58.png

 

The USD/CHF pair has gone sideways after exhibiting volatile volatility on Monday. The asset will likely trade sideways until volatility decreases since it hits resistance at 0.9780. As a result of failing to exceed the crucial resistance level of 0.09000, the asset saw a substantial fall.

 

A major negative reversal was foreseen by the formation of the Double Top chart pattern when the price failed to maintain its position above Tuesday's high at 0.9859. The aforementioned chart pattern frequently indicates waning demand at high levels. A negative reversal is now more likely as a result of the development of a selling tail around high levels.

 

Following the formation of a double top, the asset is forming an initiative selling structure, which points to the entry of those investors who start short positions after a bearish bias has been created. At 0.9767, the major is forming an initiative structure inside the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) border, demonstrating that market participants are respecting the significant EMA.

 

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14), which signals an oncoming consolidation, has shifted into a range between 40.00 and 60.00. The asset will reach the July 5 top of 0.9705 with a sharp decrease below the July 13 low of 0.9758. If the latter barrier is breached, the asset will be more vulnerable to losses up to the 1. July high of 0.9642.

 

Alternatively, following Wednesday's violation of the 0.9827 high, the dollar bulls may defend the double top pattern. The asset will be propelled by this to its top on Thursday of 0.9886 and then encounter psychological resistance at 1.0000.


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