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On March 18, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council held a regular press conference. According to Reuters, a large-scale US arms sale to Taiwan, including advanced interceptor missiles, is about to be submitted to President Trump for approval, and Trump may sign it after his visit to China. What is your comment on this? Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that we firmly oppose relevant countries selling weapons to Taiwan, and this position is consistent and clear. The US should adhere to the one-China principle and the three Sino-US joint communiqués, handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan prudently, and take concrete actions to safeguard the stability of Sino-US relations and peace across the Taiwan Strait.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: Overnight, international gold prices were mixed. London spot gold fluctuated narrowly, COMEX gold futures rose 0.18%, and SHFE gold fell 0.16%. The Federal Reserve will hold its March interest rate meeting early Thursday morning Beijing time. This meeting will focus on three key areas: 1. Whether monetary policy will shift. The meeting will release the latest dot plot. At the December meeting, officials were divided, with the median expectation being one rate cut (25 basis points) this year. The focus this time is whether further rate cuts are possible. 2. The Summary of Second Quarter Forecasts (SEP). Fed officials will make predictions on inflation and economic trends, especially the actual impact of the March oil price surge on inflation. 3. The Fed Chairmans post-meeting remarks. This is the first Fed meeting since the Middle East conflict. Facing rising oil prices, weak employment, and legal investigations, Chairman Powells statements at the press conference are worth watching, especially how he assesses the "two-way risk" of the oil price surge triggered by the Middle East conflict on inflation and growth. Gold may experience increased volatility after the meeting; cautious trading is advised. 4. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict remains unresolved. Trump stated that most NATO allies have indicated their unwillingness to be involved in US military action against Iran, and that the US "does not need anyones help." Israel stated that two senior Iranian officials have been "eliminated." 5. The US-Iran conflict remains the focus of gold trading. A buy-on-dips strategy is recommended. Regardless of future inflation or stagflation expectations, golds strategic allocation position will increase. Liquidity concerns have actually provided investors with an opportunity to buy and hold at lower prices. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)According to NHK, the Japan-US summit will issue a joint statement agreeing to a second round of investment exceeding 11 trillion yen.S&P Global: Middle East wars will exacerbate volatility for South Korean oil refining companies.South Korean envoy: We have successfully avoided the worst-case scenario in the oil sector.

The chances of a bearish reversal for the USD/CHF rise as bears test the 200-EMA

Daniel Rogers

Jul 19, 2022 11:59

 截屏2022-07-19 上午10.03.58.png

 

The USD/CHF pair has gone sideways after exhibiting volatile volatility on Monday. The asset will likely trade sideways until volatility decreases since it hits resistance at 0.9780. As a result of failing to exceed the crucial resistance level of 0.09000, the asset saw a substantial fall.

 

A major negative reversal was foreseen by the formation of the Double Top chart pattern when the price failed to maintain its position above Tuesday's high at 0.9859. The aforementioned chart pattern frequently indicates waning demand at high levels. A negative reversal is now more likely as a result of the development of a selling tail around high levels.

 

Following the formation of a double top, the asset is forming an initiative selling structure, which points to the entry of those investors who start short positions after a bearish bias has been created. At 0.9767, the major is forming an initiative structure inside the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) border, demonstrating that market participants are respecting the significant EMA.

 

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14), which signals an oncoming consolidation, has shifted into a range between 40.00 and 60.00. The asset will reach the July 5 top of 0.9705 with a sharp decrease below the July 13 low of 0.9758. If the latter barrier is breached, the asset will be more vulnerable to losses up to the 1. July high of 0.9642.

 

Alternatively, following Wednesday's violation of the 0.9827 high, the dollar bulls may defend the double top pattern. The asset will be propelled by this to its top on Thursday of 0.9886 and then encounter psychological resistance at 1.0000.