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June 29th - According to a survey released by Invesco, concerns about the US dollar are "widespread and deepening," with 61% of surveyed central banks stating that US debt levels negatively impact the dollars long-term status as a reserve asset, compared to 20% in 2024. While the Iran war has boosted the dollar by 3% this year, analysts say that US policy uncertainty and high debt levels suggest the dollar may weaken in the long term. Although any shift towards reducing dollar investments is likely to be gradual due to the lack of credible alternatives, the Invesco survey shows that 29% of respondents believe the dollars reserve currency status will weaken within five years, up from 12% in 2022. Invesco also noted that several institutions have reported reassessing their reliance on US custodians, counterparties, and clearing infrastructure due to geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, one-third of respondents indicated they intend to increase their gold holdings in response to the trend of investment diversification.Japans seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 1.9% month-on-month in May, compared with expectations of a -0.60% decline and a revised 2.10% increase in the previous month (originally 1.30%).Japans retail sales rose 5.3% year-on-year in May, below the expected 3.2% and the previous figure revised from 2.10% to 2.80%.Futures News, June 29th - According to foreign media reports, Malaysian crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) are likely to open higher on Monday morning, mainly reflecting the rebound in international crude oil futures following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East over the weekend. Over the weekend, a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker was attacked by an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a new round of attacks by the US Central Command, further escalating the conflict in the Middle East. This led to a rebound in international crude oil futures during Mondays electronic trading session, which will likely boost the early performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. Strong Malaysian palm oil exports and Indonesias upcoming policy of blending palm oil-based biofuels are also bullish for the palm oil market.Sources say Venezuela’s Amuay refinery has shut down due to a power outage; its daily output is 64.5 barrels.

The chances of a bearish reversal for the USD/CHF rise as bears test the 200-EMA

Daniel Rogers

Jul 19, 2022 11:59

 截屏2022-07-19 上午10.03.58.png

 

The USD/CHF pair has gone sideways after exhibiting volatile volatility on Monday. The asset will likely trade sideways until volatility decreases since it hits resistance at 0.9780. As a result of failing to exceed the crucial resistance level of 0.09000, the asset saw a substantial fall.

 

A major negative reversal was foreseen by the formation of the Double Top chart pattern when the price failed to maintain its position above Tuesday's high at 0.9859. The aforementioned chart pattern frequently indicates waning demand at high levels. A negative reversal is now more likely as a result of the development of a selling tail around high levels.

 

Following the formation of a double top, the asset is forming an initiative selling structure, which points to the entry of those investors who start short positions after a bearish bias has been created. At 0.9767, the major is forming an initiative structure inside the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) border, demonstrating that market participants are respecting the significant EMA.

 

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14), which signals an oncoming consolidation, has shifted into a range between 40.00 and 60.00. The asset will reach the July 5 top of 0.9705 with a sharp decrease below the July 13 low of 0.9758. If the latter barrier is breached, the asset will be more vulnerable to losses up to the 1. July high of 0.9642.

 

Alternatively, following Wednesday's violation of the 0.9827 high, the dollar bulls may defend the double top pattern. The asset will be propelled by this to its top on Thursday of 0.9886 and then encounter psychological resistance at 1.0000.