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On August 29th, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez to pay $172,539 for illegally trading on a prediction market platform using advance access to Trumps speeches. Under the settlement agreement with the CFTC, Perez must return $107,539.02 in illicit gains and pay a $65,000 civil penalty. He also agreed to a three-year trading ban and pledged to cease and not violate the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations. The CFTC stated that Perez traded Trump "mention market" contracts on the Kalshi platform between December 2025 and February 2026, while serving in the White House. These contracts are event-based contracts, with payouts determined by whether the president uses specific words or phrases in his speeches.Strait of Hormuz: 1. The US claims its continued maritime blockade of Iran has forced 82 merchant ships to change course. 2. Trump stated the Strait of Hormuz is open, while US officials say Irans leverage is eroding. 3. The US hopes to widen the main channel of the Strait of Hormuz by mid-September so that at least 50 ships can enter and exit the Gulf each night. 4. Iranian President Pezechiyan: Oman has agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should be managed according to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. Iran will open the channel if the four commitments are fulfilled. 5. US Treasury Secretary Bessant: Blockade and economic isolation will destroy Irans collapsing economy. In the past 14 days, the US has diverted 130 million barrels of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, while Irans crude oil exports have been zero. 6. Iranian Revolutionary Guard: Iranian fighters have complete and unquestionable control over the strategic waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. All ships attempting to pass through without Iranian coordination will be blocked from the Strait of Hormuz by full force and absolute authority. Other matters: 1. The US Treasury Department announced a new round of sanctions against Iran. 2. Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon called for the cancellation of the trilateral framework agreement between Lebanon, Israel, and the US. 3. Goldman Sachs: Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels. 4. Iranian Foreign Minister: Getting diplomacy back on track is not impossible, but "pressure will not work." 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the new economic threat from the US and called on all countries not to implement it. 6. British media: The US military is facing a "serious financial crisis" and has been forced to divert salaries to pay for the war against Iran. 7. US Treasury Department: We have identified the networks, intermediaries, and funding channels used by Iran for oil smuggling and sanctions circumvention. 8. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter: The Treasury Department pledged to cut off every remaining economic lifeline of Tehran and ultimately end the threat to the Iranian regime. 9. According to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB): Sources say Yemeni drones attacked a Saudi-backed mercenary base in the port of Mocha.Market news: Gunfire and explosions have been heard in several areas of Niamey, the capital of Niger.August 29th - According to a report by NBC on the 28th, two sources familiar with the matter revealed that US Defense Secretary Hergsays recently discussed the possibility of running for president in 2028 with those close to him. However, the Pentagon denied this. In response to the NBC report, a Pentagon spokesperson denied the claims, stating, "Hergsays will not run for president; his primary responsibility is to lead the Department of Defense. All other speculation is absurd."August 29th - On August 28th local time, the U.S. Central Command stated that the United States continues its naval blockade of Iran. As of the 28th, U.S. Central Command forces had guided 82 merchant ships to change course, rendered 3 merchant ships incapable of navigation, and boarded and inspected 2 other merchant ships.

The chances of a bearish reversal for the USD/CHF rise as bears test the 200-EMA

Daniel Rogers

Jul 19, 2022 11:59

 截屏2022-07-19 上午10.03.58.png

 

The USD/CHF pair has gone sideways after exhibiting volatile volatility on Monday. The asset will likely trade sideways until volatility decreases since it hits resistance at 0.9780. As a result of failing to exceed the crucial resistance level of 0.09000, the asset saw a substantial fall.

 

A major negative reversal was foreseen by the formation of the Double Top chart pattern when the price failed to maintain its position above Tuesday's high at 0.9859. The aforementioned chart pattern frequently indicates waning demand at high levels. A negative reversal is now more likely as a result of the development of a selling tail around high levels.

 

Following the formation of a double top, the asset is forming an initiative selling structure, which points to the entry of those investors who start short positions after a bearish bias has been created. At 0.9767, the major is forming an initiative structure inside the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) border, demonstrating that market participants are respecting the significant EMA.

 

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14), which signals an oncoming consolidation, has shifted into a range between 40.00 and 60.00. The asset will reach the July 5 top of 0.9705 with a sharp decrease below the July 13 low of 0.9758. If the latter barrier is breached, the asset will be more vulnerable to losses up to the 1. July high of 0.9642.

 

Alternatively, following Wednesday's violation of the 0.9827 high, the dollar bulls may defend the double top pattern. The asset will be propelled by this to its top on Thursday of 0.9886 and then encounter psychological resistance at 1.0000.


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