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On January 13, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions on the "Several Policies of Guangzhou Municipality on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry Across the Entire Chain During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period (Draft for Solicitation of Opinions)". The draft mentions accelerating breakthroughs in the design of high-end general-purpose chips such as processors, memory chips, and edge computing chips; actively supporting the development of specialized chips such as RISC-V (an open-source instruction set architecture based on the principle of reduced instruction set), automotive-grade, display drivers, sensors, optical communication, and 6G; strengthening support for the first-round tape-out of integrated circuit companies products; and providing subsidies of up to 50% of the tape-out cost to qualified companies that conduct tape-out of 28nm and below chips with independent intellectual property rights or significant competitive advantages.On January 13, at the ceremony marking the production of the 1 millionth Seres vehicle, Zhang Xinghai, Chairman of the Seres Group, announced that the first million-vehicle sales of the Wenjie brand were achieved after five years. In the next two years, the company will strive to achieve the second million-vehicle target, namely, an average annual sales volume of over 500,000 vehicles from 2026 to 2027.On January 13th, Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang stated in a report that Pop Marts domestic revenue growth may slow in the fourth quarter. He indicated that due to a "high base and delays in the launch of new plush keychains featuring its flagship IPs," the companys overall revenue growth in the Chinese market in the fourth quarter may be lower than in the third quarter. He added that some Labubu products are experiencing inventory backlogs in certain retail stores, indicating that market interest in older products is waning. Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate for the stock at HK$280. "After the recent sharp decline in share price, Pop Marts valuation is now attractive, and we believe the markets concerns about its short-term revenue fluctuations are excessive."On January 13th, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced that its newly formed Financial Policy Committee has finalized its seven members, including two external appointees. The committee will hold its first meeting in February. This move stems from several surveys conducted last year regarding competition in New Zealands banking sector, which recommended that the RBNZ strengthen its financial policy-making capabilities. With the support of Finance Minister Willis, the RBNZ Board of Governors established the committee to enhance the professionalism of policy decisions. The committees responsibilities include setting prudential regulatory requirements for financial institutions and making decisions on macroprudential policy. In addition, the committee will advise the Finance Minister on legislative reforms, regulatory measures, or other regulatory activities, and will be responsible for approving the central banks semi-annual Financial Stability Report.On January 13th, former Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member Makoto Sakurai stated that the BOJ may raise interest rates as early as April due to the continued weakness of the yen caused by escalating market concerns about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis "dangerous" fiscal policies. "The BOJ must raise rates at least once before June or July, but the action could come in April." (The market generally expects the BOJ to raise rates approximately every six months, so an April rate hike would be earlier than the market consensus.) These remarks came as the yen further depreciated following reports in Japanese media that the Takaichi municipal government was considering holding an early general election next month. Sakurais comments indicate that he believes the BOJ will not take action to support the yen at its next two meetings, and if the yen continues to depreciate, the responsibility for maintaining the exchange rate during this period will fall on the Ministry of Finance.

The United States has no plan to release its strategic reserves, and oil prices have rebounded sharply by more than US$3

Oct 26, 2021 11:00

On Thursday (October 7), US oil rose 1.42 US dollars in late trading, or 1.83%, to close at 78.85 US dollars per barrel. Bilbao oil rose 1.35 US dollars, or 1.67%, to close at 82.43 US dollars per barrel. The U.S. Department of Energy stated that "currently" there is no plan to release strategic oil reserves to curb the rise in gasoline prices, and subsequent oil prices continue to rise. At the same time, progress has been made in the US debt ceiling negotiations, and market risk appetite has increased, which has boosted oil prices.

A report in the British "Financial Times" on Wednesday said that the US Secretary of Energy raised the possibility of releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and crude oil prices fell by 2.7%. In response to this, the US Department of Energy issued a statement on Thursday: “The Department of Energy continues to monitor global energy market supply and will work with our partner agencies to determine if and when action is required. To protect the American people, all tools in the toolbox are It is under consideration, but there is no plan to take action yet."

The United States also occasionally uses its strategic reserves, usually after hurricanes or other supply disruptions. However, since the end of the 40-year crude oil export ban in 2015, the country has become an important exporter and has never proposed to cut exports. There is speculation about whether the US government is considering using its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) or seeking to ban oil exports in order to reduce crude oil prices.

At the same time, US President Biden’s national security adviser on Thursday urged energy suppliers to increase supply to meet demand. He said the United States is worried about their failure to do this. Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., said the key thing to remember is that the Biden administration is very eager to give consumers cheap gasoline. Therefore, if oil prices continue to rise and overheat, the United States will put pressure on OPEC.

Earlier this week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to only gradually increase production, pushing crude oil prices to multi-year highs. Due to the tight global supply, the demand from major import markets such as Asian consumer countries has recovered faster than expected after the new crown epidemic, and oil prices have been rising steadily. In a report, ING Group analyst Warren Patterson said that the oil market is tightening in the short term, which means that oil prices will still be well supported before the end of the year.

The market focus now returns to the shortage of global natural gas supply, which is bound to increase the demand for crude oil for power generation this winter. On the 7th local time, the British Gasoline Retailers Association stated that the recovery of fuel supply in some parts of the UK has not been fast enough, especially in the southeastern part of the UK, including London, which has not seen a significant improvement. The chairman of the association, Brian Madsen, said that the current fuel supply situation in the southeast of the UK is the most difficult, and the fuel inventory level is still below the 20% warning line. It can be seen that the region is more affected by the shortage of truck drivers. Gas station inventories in London and the East of England are slightly higher, with a capacity between 20% and 40%.

(U.S. Oil Hour Chart)

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