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In The S&P 500 The Wyckoff Upthrust and Volume Pattern Indicate That Further Weakness Is On The Way

Cameron Murphy

Apr 18, 2022 11:01


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The S&P 500 E-mini futures saw a Wyckoff upthrust (UT) of the prior resistance set by the automatic rally (AR) in early February 2022 on March 31, 2022. This was the first red signal in the downswing's attempt to test support.


The Wyckoff upthrust, also known as a false breakout, is a regular occurrence in which wise funds sell into strength in order to offload their holdings, but the majority of merchants buy into the enthusiasm for fear of losing out on the powerful advance.


The short-covering rally was overbought, and a Wyckoff upthrust (UT) appeared on March 31, 2022, when the automated rally's resistance was breached. During the upthrust, the volume showed an increase in supply. Following that, the downturn was followed by strong supply consistency and a widening of the price differential, indicating that supply is under control.


Failure to commit above the axis line at 4450, where support has become resistance, indicates that the downswing will continue. S&P 500 is projected to test the next support region around 4200-4280 if the support range between 4380-4400 fails to hold. So far, the S&P 500 has been stuck in a large trading range of 4100-4600, as characterized by the selling climax (SC), secondary test (SC), and automatic rally (AR) (AR).


Until shown differently, the directional bias is still to the negative since the indication of weakness fell below 4600 in January 2022. Market volatility is still high, which isn't one of the Wyckoff accumulation structure's features. As the large trading range continues to expand, it is helpful to utilize the Wyckoff approach to examine price action features such as price spread, velocity, and progress, as well as supply and demand as represented in volume, to build a directional bias.

Trading Strategy for Stock Market Sector Rotation

Despite the current market volatility, there are still a lot of solid uptrending stocks in outperforming sectors that are good for swing trading. The S&P 500's choppy performance is due to a sector rotation, which may not represent the complete picture of the market situation.


There are 353 bullish setup stocks vs 518 negative setup stocks, as seen in my stock screener below. Many of the positive stocks are in commodity-related industries, such as oil and gas, milling, agricultural chemicals, precious metals miners, and so on.


The smart money is focused on these outperforming groupings. To be successful in this turbulent market, it is critical to trade with the trend and where the money flows.

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