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Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor: The probability of an economic recession has risen to 30% to 40%.The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 16 was 209,000, compared with expectations of 210,000 and a revised figure of 212,000 for the previous week (originally reported as 211,000).On May 21st, bettors on the prediction website Polymarket predicted that SpaceXs market capitalization upon its IPO will almost certainly exceed $1 trillion, with a 73% probability of surpassing $2 trillion. These bets are tied to SpaceXs closing market capitalization on its first day of trading. The company plans to list in June, with an expected target valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion. Furthermore, data from Polymarket shows a 17% probability of its market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion and a 2% probability of exceeding $4 trillion. The prediction website launched betting on SpaceXs market capitalization approximately two weeks ago, but trading in these contracts is currently thin, possibly indicating that outsiders are cautiously optimistic about these probabilities. If SpaceXs market capitalization does indeed exceed $2 trillion, its size will surpass at least two of the seven largest U.S. stocks: Meta Platforms (META.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O), whose current market capitalizations are approximately $1.5 trillion and $1.6 trillion, respectively.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor: I think we are probably actually at a level about 100 basis points above the neutral rate.The Xiaomi YU7 GT with full configuration is priced at 429,900 yuan.

The IMF/World Bank Meetings to Test Risk Appetite as Fed Hawks Swoon

Skylar Shaw

Oct 11, 2022 14:48

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Last week's US economic figures exceeded forecasts. The US employment data and higher-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI statistics allowed the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November. The World Bank and IMF have been keeping an eye on central bank and economic activities.


Since the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Fed has maintained its stance. Fed Chair Powell issued a warning in August about the Fed's commitment to achieving the target inflation rate.


Powell also dispelled any expectations of a policy change at the time by warning the markets that inflation would need to be controlled by a protracted period of below-trend growth and a weaker labor market.


The Jackson Hole speech's response from the market was identical to that of Friday's employment data. The Powell speech resulted in a 3.94% decline in the NASDAQ 100. In reaction to an increase in hiring and a drop in the US unemployment rate to 3.5% last Friday, the NASDAQ fell by 3.80%.


The cryptocurrency market, which fell by $78 billion in reaction to Powell's speech and $11.5 billion in response to the employment data, experienced a distinct situation. Notably, the employment data offers the Fed leeway to aggressively front load rates. The crypto market was more affected by US inflation data.

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