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On September 10th, four sources within the Yemeni government forces stated that the Houthi rebels are close to gaining complete control of coastal cities along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the historic port cities of Mocha and Dhubab. The group is currently pushing for control of the entire Red Sea coast of Yemen. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, also known as the "Gate of Tears," is a key target for the Houthis. If this narrow waterway is blocked, the main shipping routes for Gulf oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia, will be disrupted, following Irans de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The yield on German 30-year government bonds rose to 3.8981%, the highest level since April 2011, up 2 basis points.Pakistan stated on Thursday that, according to the Mecca Agreement, there are currently no discussions regarding Islamabads military response to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, but added that Pakistan will act "when the time is right." When asked at a weekly media briefing about Islamabads plans to fulfill its obligations under the joint defense agreement signed with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Sajjad Haider Khan said, "There are no discussions on such matters at present… When the time is right, (we) will act in accordance with the agreement." The joint defense agreement, signed last month, stipulates that an armed attack on any of the three countries will be considered an attack on all three. This issue arises after Houthi attacks on Saudi cities and energy infrastructure this week, which, as of Thursday, have become a second front in the Middle East. Reuters reported that Islamabad has warned Iran to restrain its Houthi allies in Yemen after the Houthis intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, which is also mediating the US-Iran conflict, condemned the attacks but did not elaborate on how it might respond under the terms of the defense agreement.Statistics South Africa: South African gold production fell 7.4% year-on-year in July, total mining output fell 7.5% year-on-year, and platinum group metals production fell 13.5% year-on-year.On September 10th, according to an analysis by The Jerusalem Post, the Houthi rebels seized control of the Red Sea coastal city of Muha on Thursday. This Houthi advance is not surprising. Although the Houthis have suffered setbacks on other fronts, this offensive appears poised to have broader implications for the entire region. Located at the northern end of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, control of Muha could mean that the Iranian-backed Houthis are one step closer to closing the strait. This would give Iran greater influence in regional affairs, despite its recent apparent setbacks on several fronts. The Houthi threat could exacerbate global security uncertainty and continue to disrupt energy markets. On September 9th, Trump stated that he expected the US-Iran conflict to gradually de-escalate after the US midterm elections, and that international oil prices were expected to fall accordingly. However, the fighting in Muha could change his assessment. In conclusion, the Yemeni government forces setbacks in Muha demonstrate that this long-neglected, relatively low-intensity conflict in Yemen still has the potential to reshape the entire regional landscape.

The EUR/USD Declines toward 1.0500, with US Inflation and ECB Lagarde in the Spotlight

Alina Haynes

May 09, 2022 10:10

The EUR/USD fell below 1.0530 and is likely to test the psychological support level of 1.0500. After Monday's opening bid, the value of the asset is continuing to decline. As of now, a bearish open trend has been noticed, and the index is attempting to challenge its bottom from the previous week at 1.0483.

 

Euro bulls are anticipated to stay volatile this week ahead of Wednesday's speech by Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank (ECB). Lagarde's statement will shed light on the expected monetary policy action taken by the ECB in June. Notable is the fact that the ECB left its interest rates constant in its most recent announcement regarding interest rates. Until the end of its bond-buying program, which is anticipated for the third quarter, the European Central Bank (ECB) has mandated that policy rates would remain constant. Consequently, investors should not anticipate a rate increase from the ECB before the end of the year. In addition, fears of stagflation in the eurozone following the Ukraine crisis have diminished the likelihood of the ECB adopting a hawkish tone.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) transforms any corrective downturn into an ideal purchasing opportunity for market participants. The DXY is robust as the probability of a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) rises. At the time of publication, the DXY has risen above 130.90 and is inching closer to recapturing last week's peak of 104.06.

 

Aside from ECB Lagarde's speech, investors are focusing on Wednesday's release of US inflation data. A preliminary estimate for annual US inflation is 8.1 percent, down from the previous estimate of 8.5 percent. 

EUR/USD

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