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According to Iranian media Fars News: The Iranian Foreign Minister has been accused of undermining Irans negotiating position by pandering to Trumps policies.On June 13th, it was reported that on June 11th, the Shenzhen Municipal Market Supervision Administration convened a citywide administrative guidance meeting on compliance for online transactions during the "6.18" shopping festival. Over 103 representatives from more than 60 platform companies, e-commerce enterprises, and industry associations, including WeChat Mini Programs, Meituan, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Taobao, and Douyin, attended the meeting. At the meeting, the Municipal Market Supervision Administration provided compliance guidance on five key areas: transparency, fair competition, subsidies and promotions, advertising and marketing, and food safety. The purpose of this compliance guidance meeting was to align with the requirements of the State Administration for Market Regulations new regulations, strengthen the main responsibility of businesses, enhance awareness of rational promotion and compliant operation during the "6.18" shopping festival, and create a healthy, orderly, and fair online consumption environment.① Iran 1. Iranian lawmakers say the US attack on Iran again is actually a form of pressure. 2. Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran is now stronger and better prepared than ever before, and is "ready to act" at any time against any act of aggression. ② United States 1. US media: Officials from multiple countries called to persuade Trump to postpone military action. 2. US officials stated that the US military shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones. 3. Trump: The terms leaked by Iran to "fake news" have nothing to do with the terms of the written agreement. 4. According to CNN, citing defense officials, the US shot down two Iranian attack drones last night. 5. US officials: The Strait of Hormuz will be open under the agreement. Iran will not receive any funds until it fulfills its obligations. 6. According to Reuters: An informed source revealed that the US military shot down several Iranian one-way attack drones flying towards the Strait of Hormuz. The source said that Iranian drones pose a threat to commercial shipping. 7. US Vice President Vance: There is a lot of misinformation surrounding the potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Irans nuclear weapons program. Iranians have not received any cash, nor will their funds be unfrozen simply because they signed an agreement or attended a meeting. ③ Israel 1. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: As long as I am Prime Minister of Israel—Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. President Trump and I are completely aligned on this issue. 2. Israeli Defense Minister: He and Prime Minister Netanyahu have instructed the Israeli military to prepare to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Israel will not withdraw from the safe zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iranian Foreign Minister: Services related to the Strait of Hormuz will be charged. The management model of the Strait of Hormuz will not be restored to the pre-war state. 2. The US military claims to have diverted 136 ships during the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; it has rendered 9 ships incapable of navigation to ensure compliance with the blockade. 3. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): Iran will not restore the state of the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war level. According to the memorandum of understanding with the United States, Iran made no commitments regarding the transfer of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The future management of the strait will be resolved as a regional matter through dialogue and joint decision-making between Iran and Oman. 4. According to Iranian reports, 50 ships are awaiting passage permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy after the suspension of passage in the Strait of Hormuz due to US hostile actions. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Iranian media released new details of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding, stating that final confirmation from relevant departments is still required. 2. Reports indicate that the UAE has agreed to unfreeze billions of dollars in funds for Iran, which the UAE Foreign Ministry denied. 3. According to Al Arabiya: Iran is demanding an agreement with the US in a European country to give the agreement international legitimacy. 4. According to CNN, citing sources, Israel is pressuring to prevent the unfreezing of Iranian assets in the ceasefire agreement. 5. Iranian Foreign Minister: The Iran-US memorandum of understanding may be signed within days; the draft includes provisions for a ceasefire on the Lebanese front. The US pledged not to wage war in the memorandum. The only preferred solution for disposing of highly enriched uranium stockpiles is to de-enrich and dilute the relevant materials. 6. G7 official: The US-Iran memorandum of understanding could be signed as early as Sunday in Geneva; Iran subsequently denied the claim that an agreement would be signed in Geneva on Sunday. 7. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): Iran seeks war reparations within a "realistic framework." The current memorandum does not reach any agreement on the nuclear issue. Nuclear negotiations will take place within 60 days of the agreements signing. 8. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that both sides have reached consensus on most issues in the negotiations, and we are currently in the final stages of the internal decision-making process. 9. US official: The US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement, which will be signed in the coming days. The terms of the memorandum of understanding include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports. Irans highly enriched uranium will also be destroyed on-site and subsequently shipped out of the country. Under the agreement, the US will acquire Irans enriched nuclear materials. ⑥ Other situations: 1. Egypt urges the US and Iran to seize the "current opportunity" to end the war. 2. Lebanese President: The state of hostilities will only end when conditions such as Israels withdrawal are met. 3. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has conveyed to US diplomats that it will ensure that US forces operating in the region take necessary measures to prevent civilian casualties.US President Trump: Before I returned to the Oval Office, Joe Biden opened our southern border to millions of criminals, allowing this foreign army to rape, mutilate, and murder American citizens with complete impunity.Anthropic: Our understanding is that the US government believes it has learned of a way to bypass or "jailbreak" Fable 5. We doubt that any current model provider can achieve a perfect jailbreak defense.

The EURGBP sustains modest gains over the mid-0.8700s, but lacks bullish conviction

Daniel Rogers

Nov 14, 2022 18:48

The EURGBP cross advances for a second day in a row on Monday and continues its modest intraday gains into the start of the European session. The cross is currently located above the middle of 0.87, but lacks bullish conviction and follow-through buying.

 

The common currency continues to receive some support from wagers on an aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). In contrast, the negative economic projection for the United Kingdom devalues the British Pound. In reality, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) projects that the United Kingdom's fourth-quarter GDP growth would be flat and the likelihood of a recession remains high. It is thought that this will strengthen the EURGBP cross.

 

However, the chance that the Bank of England will increase interest rates further operates as a tailwind for the British pound. Aside from this, a slight US Dollar recovery from a near three-month low exerts some pressure on the Euro and, at least for the time being, limits any meaningful gain for the EURGBP cross. Ahead of this week's crucial UK macro data - the monthly jobs report on Tuesday and the CPI report on Wednesday - traders remain reluctant to place risky wagers.

 

The Monetary Policy Report Hearings at the Bank of England on Wednesday and the Autumn Statement by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on Thursday will provide markets with extra advice. This will play a vital role in shaping the near-term GBP sentiment and the next leg of the EURGBP cross's directional move. In the lack of market-moving economic data from either the Eurozone or the United Kingdom, it is anticipated that spot prices would stabilize within a range.