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On May 9, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that once a specific trade plan is on the table, she could envision visiting Washington to meet with Trump to discuss trade negotiations. "If I go to the White House, I hope there is a package that we can discuss," von der Leyen said. "It has to be specific, and I hope there is a solution that we can both agree on. Thats what were working on now." Last month, von der Leyen met briefly with Trump at Pope Francis funeral, but a formal meeting has not yet taken place. On Thursday, the European Commission announced that if trade negotiations with the United States fail to produce satisfactory results, the EU will impose additional tariffs on 95 billion euros of US exports. Von der Leyen said on Friday that the EU prefers to resolve the issue through negotiations to avoid tariff escalation, but is developing countermeasures that can be implemented if a "satisfactory result" cannot be reached.On May 9, ECB board member Simkus said that since the eurozone economy has not yet felt the full impact of US tariffs, inflation is expected to continue to slow, but the ECB must further lower interest rates. He said that although economic activity performed well at the beginning, recent geopolitical trends, including US President Trumps trade threats, are bad news. At the same time, he saw "clear anti-inflationary forces" at work. He said, "For me, the June decision was very clear that another rate cut was needed." He said, "It is possible to cut interest rates again after June," although the timing is unclear. The ECB has cut interest rates seven times since June last year, and officials have said they are ready to take more measures as US tariffs threaten economic growth.Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler: It is not appropriate to use a single indicator to guide the maximum employment target.Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr: Forward-looking measures are worrying.Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr: The first quarter GDP data was somewhat abnormal.

The AUD/NZD exchange rate has dropped below 1.0300 on hawkish RBNZ bets

Alina Haynes

Aug 12, 2022 12:09

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The AUD/NZD exchange rate dropped from 1.0500 to 1.0400, and has since been trading sideways. For the asset to record a new weekly bottom, the kiwi bulls would have to push the cross below the immediate support of 1.0300. Bullish expectations for the New Zealand dollar were supported by the publication of a strong Business New Zealand PMI.

 

Greater than both the predicted 52.5 and the prior figure of 50, the Business NZ PMI has now reached 52.7. Because of this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be pleased with its efforts to reduce inflation. The RBNZ's monetary policy meeting next week will result in an interest rate announcement. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is expected to be increased by Governor Adrian Orr for the fourth time in a row, by 50 basis points (bps). The OCR will go up to 3% after a comparable notification is made.

 

An OCR hike by the RBNZ to 4.00% by mid-2023 is predicted by a Reuters poll. It is forecasted that inflation will drop to levels below the 2%-3% target during the first half of 2023. At last, the RBNZ's goal of price stability appears to be within reach.

 

There was little relief for the Aussie bulls despite statistics showing that Australian consumers expect inflation to be lower than it actually is. The Reserve Bank of Australia will become less hawkish if the Australian Consumer Inflation Predictions, which reflect consumer predictions of future inflation over the next 12 months, fall.


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