Supply continues to be tight! Upside potential for oil prices is still huge

U.S. oil prices have risen for five consecutive days recently and have reached the highest level since 2014. The world is concerned about energy supply, and there are signs of tight supply in crude oil, natural gas and coal markets.


Two days ago, OPEC+, formed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the oil-producing allies headed by Russia, stated that it would adhere to the existing agreement and gradually increase oil production, rather than further increase production. The Biden administration had previously called on OPEC and its allies to increase oil production in response to soaring gasoline prices. India, another major oil consumer, also called on OPEC to consider increasing supply to ensure that prices are suitable for producers and consumers.

Kieran Clancy, a commodity economist at Capital Economics, believes that OPEC+ is under increasing pressure, but their refusal to expand production means that the market is still in deficit in the fourth quarter, indicating that oil prices will remain at least this year. It will remain high for a while.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) wrote in a report: "OPEC's outlook indicates a further reduction in global oil inventories. Given that oil inventories are already low, this is a problem."

They said that as the vaccination rate rises to support the reopening of the economy, the global demand for crude oil has accelerated, and rising oil prices may threaten the recovery of the global economy.

ANZ Bank said in a report: “Crude oil has expanded its gains because investors are worried that the energy crisis will push up demand and market supply is tight. Considering the global energy shortage, OPEC+'s growth rate is much lower than market expectations. Not surprisingly, people It is speculated that if demand continues to surge, OPEC will be forced to take action before the next scheduled meeting."

Prior to the arrival of the winter heating season, global supply continued to be tight, with natural gas futures prices rising by more than 9% on Tuesday, the highest closing price in nearly 13 years.

Schneider Electric's global research and analysis manager Robbie Fraser said that as the global crude oil market has been in short supply, record natural gas prices in major demand regions will lead to a strong increase in heating demand for products such as diesel and fuel oil, which will eventually support a further decline in crude oil and product inventories. , Now crude oil and product inventories are far below the normal level at this time of the year.

FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that in the past 7 weeks, oil prices have risen almost uninterruptedly. During this period, they have risen by more than 25%, but this does not mean that the upside potential has been exhausted, because most of the gains have come from deep corrections. . The kinetic energy of oil lags behind that of natural gas and coal, so it may have huge upside potential.