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On December 17th, the British government announced in a statement that it would begin negotiations with the European Union on electricity market integration. London further noted that progress in these negotiations could reduce electricity costs for British citizens. The British government commented, "Closer electricity cooperation will bring real benefits to businesses and consumers across the UK, boost investment in the North Sea region, and strengthen energy security." Both sides also "set a deadline next year for reaching a food and beverage trade agreement and carbon market interconnection" before the 2026 UK-EU summit.Market news: Mexico has lifted tariffs on imports of ammonium sulfate from the United States.December 17th - Traders are increasingly inclined to believe that the rate-cutting cycle by European central banks has largely ended. Money markets indicate that the European Central Bank, the Swedish central bank, and the Norwegian central bank are expected to keep rates unchanged at their meetings tomorrow and maintain broadly stable rates until the end of 2026. Even the Bank of England, which is expected to cut rates on Thursday, is only fully priced in one more rate cut next year, despite weaker inflation data released on Wednesday increasing the likelihood of another cut. This contrasts sharply with market sentiment earlier this year, when the market widely expected European central banks to cut rates significantly by 2026. Similarly, the Swiss National Bank, which previously led the way in rate cuts and lowered rates multiple times, has paused its rate cuts, and rates are now at zero. "Many of these countries have already cut rates multiple times – policy rates are no longer tightening," said Mike Riedel, a fund manager at Fidelity International. "The most notable change in interest rates over the past month is that some central banks that previously led the rate cuts are now expected to raise rates, rather than continue cutting them."Preliminary plans indicate that Angola will load 29 tankers of crude oil in February, compared to 30 tankers planned for January.On December 17th, Ukraines top military commander, Sergei Syrsky, stated on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had taken control of nearly 90% of the northeastern town of Kupyansk. This came days after the Ukrainian president declared a victory for Ukrainian forces against Russian troops in Kupyansk. "Thanks to active search and strike operations, we have successfully driven [Russian troops] out of Kupyansk and taken control of nearly 90% of the towns territory," Syrsky wrote.

Stock Markets Analysis – Is Recession Possible?

Skylar Shaw

Jun 30, 2022 14:50

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Data released yesterday showed that consumer confidence decreased more than anticipated in June, reaching a six-month low, adding fuel to those worries.

consumer assurance

According to the Conference Board, the decline was caused by rising inflation and worries about a potential recession. Consumers' expectations for wage growth, the job market, and business conditions have dropped to their lowest points in over a decade, giving them a rather bleak short-term picture for the economy as a whole.


Bulls, on the other hand, highlight specifics from the Consumer Confidence report that show US consumers do not intend to cut back on spending as much as some have feared, with future spending plans for automobiles and other expensive items like refrigerators and washing machines actually increasing... so they claim. Given that gas prices have increased by up to $5 a gallon in many areas and that grocery store food prices are much higher than they were in the past, it's difficult for me to see where people would find the bigger lump sums of money.


You have to think that the US consumer will eventually reach a credit card limit and lose the ability to refinance and leverage their properties. Remember that consumer spending makes up over 70% of our economy, so if it declines, the economy will as well.


How much will consumer spending slow down, I wonder? Perhaps not much right now, but if the Fed keeps raising interest rates and the price of food and energy continues to rise—which I believe it will—the US consumer will ultimately suffer greatly.

Q2 earnings

For S&P 500 businesses, experts on Wall Street presently forecast Q2 profit growth of +4.3 percent, down from approximately +6 percent at the end of March. As we approach Q2 earnings season, which "unofficially" begins on July 13 with reports from major Wall Street Banks, many on Wall Street believe that expectations will be lowered even more.


Investors today will be analyzing more remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will take part in a panel discussion at a bank symposium sponsored by the European Central Bank.


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