Stock Markets Analysis – Is Recession Possible?

Data released yesterday showed that consumer confidence decreased more than anticipated in June, reaching a six-month low, adding fuel to those worries.

consumer assurance

According to the Conference Board, the decline was caused by rising inflation and worries about a potential recession. Consumers' expectations for wage growth, the job market, and business conditions have dropped to their lowest points in over a decade, giving them a rather bleak short-term picture for the economy as a whole.

Bulls, on the other hand, highlight specifics from the Consumer Confidence report that show US consumers do not intend to cut back on spending as much as some have feared, with future spending plans for automobiles and other expensive items like refrigerators and washing machines actually increasing... so they claim. Given that gas prices have increased by up to $5 a gallon in many areas and that grocery store food prices are much higher than they were in the past, it's difficult for me to see where people would find the bigger lump sums of money.

You have to think that the US consumer will eventually reach a credit card limit and lose the ability to refinance and leverage their properties. Remember that consumer spending makes up over 70% of our economy, so if it declines, the economy will as well.

How much will consumer spending slow down, I wonder? Perhaps not much right now, but if the Fed keeps raising interest rates and the price of food and energy continues to rise—which I believe it will—the US consumer will ultimately suffer greatly.

Q2 earnings

For S&P 500 businesses, experts on Wall Street presently forecast Q2 profit growth of +4.3 percent, down from approximately +6 percent at the end of March. As we approach Q2 earnings season, which "unofficially" begins on July 13 with reports from major Wall Street Banks, many on Wall Street believe that expectations will be lowered even more.

Investors today will be analyzing more remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will take part in a panel discussion at a bank symposium sponsored by the European Central Bank.