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U.S. Redbook retail sales annualized for the week ending April 3 were 7.6%, compared to 6.9% previously.April 7th - U.S. business equipment orders rebounded in February, indicating that companies are proceeding with investment plans ahead of the potential conflict with Iran. Data released Tuesday by the U.S. Commerce Department showed that orders for non-defense capital goods (excluding aircraft) rose 0.6% in February, compared to economists median forecast of a 0.5% increase. Orders for all durable goods fell 1.4%, primarily reflecting a decrease in aircraft orders. Boeing stated that it received fewer aircraft orders in February compared to the previous month. The durable goods report showed increases in orders for computers, automobiles, metals, and machinery. Economists expect business investment to remain robust this year as companies continue to invest in artificial intelligence and take advantage of more favorable tax terms. Meanwhile, it remains unclear how cautious companies will become due to the potential conflict with Iran.On April 7th, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that the impact of the Iran war will push up overall inflation, and the resulting inflationary factors will be directly reflected in overall inflation data. Taking energy factors into account, the inflation rate should be around 2.75%. The current focus is on overall inflation; core inflation has not changed significantly. Tariffs remain an important factor in inflation, and overall inflation is expected to slow later this year. Monetary policy is currently in a favorable position, and a wait-and-see approach is appropriate. Interest rates are currently at a perfectly appropriate level and can be adjusted if necessary. The labor market situation is quite complex, characterized by low hiring and low layoffs.Federal Reserves Williams: I havent spoken with Warsh recently.Federal Reserves Williams: Warsh has a deep understanding of the Feds mission.

Stock Investors Are Extremely Anxious in Trying to Pick the Bottom

Jimmy Khan

Oct 17, 2022 16:20

The price swings of yesterday serve just as a reminder of the extraordinary volatility we are now seeing.


Economic Stability Inflation is still rampant, particularly in some of the stickier areas like food, where it is at levels last seen in the late 1970s. Furthermore, I haven't really seen any significant decreases in rent, and it seems like energy costs are attempting to sneak back up.


However, wage growth is still robust, and there haven't been any significant decreases in the work force or large-scale layoffs. In other words, the bulls could have just made another false start.


Some bulls are once again claiming that the higher CPI readings represent "peak" inflation, but an increasing number seem to feel that the Fed will change direction sooner than anticipated due to other economic worries.


The Fed's initial area of concern would probably be the impact on the US labor market. But many economists think there is capacity for the Fed to raise rates and hold them there for a lot longer than Wall Street anticipates, given that unemployment is just 3.5%.


Others think the Fed will be persuaded to undertake lower rate increases or perhaps to suspend them as a result of problems developing in other financial markets or institutions. Along with that, there is also the worry that a financial blunder may ultimately lead to a larger financial crisis with repercussions for all international markets.


For your information, the markets anticipate a 95% possibility that the Fed will increase interest rates by an additional 75 basis points at its forthcoming FOMC meeting on November 2. And there is a 70% possibility that they will increase rates by another 75 basis points at the FOMC meeting on December 14.

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