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April 16th - According to information disclosed by the US on the 15th, due to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran depleting US military weapon stockpiles, the Trump administration is in contact with automakers and other manufacturers, intending to have them increase weapons production. Sources indicate that senior US defense officials have discussed increasing arms production with executives from several companies, including General Motors CEO Mary Barra and Ford CEO Jim Farley. In addition, General Electric-Aerospace and Oshkosh Corporation, headquartered in Wisconsin, also participated in talks with US defense officials. The report states that the US Department of Defense intends to recruit these companies, utilizing their personnel and factory capacity to increase the production of ammunition and other equipment.On April 16, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun held a regular press conference. A Reuters reporter asked, "US President Trump said yesterday that he believes China will not stop buying Iranian oil. He also said he would impose sanctions on countries that buy Iranian oil. What is Chinas comment on this?" Guo Jiakun stated that China has consistently opposed illegal unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law and are not authorized by the UN Security Council.On April 16th, Suren Thiru, an economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants, stated that the unexpectedly strong growth in the UK in February would soon be overshadowed by the impact of the war with Iran. GDP grew by 0.5% that month, higher than the expected 0.2%. He said, "Given that the unexpectedly strong growth in February has been far outpaced by new energy and supply chain shocks, these figures are unlikely to alleviate stagflation concerns." This is expected to affect investment and consumer spending over the next year, thus dampening economic growth. Thiru indicated that the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being, as the squeeze on growth will suppress inflation.The Bank of Japan announced that it will hold a meeting of bond market participants from May 21 to 22.April 16th - According to the BBC, Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that the central bank is "not in a hurry" to make a decision on interest rate hikes in the face of the energy price shock caused by the war with Iran. He pointed out that rising oil and gas prices will certainly affect prices, but other factors make interest rate decisions "very, very difficult." Bailey said, "We are not in a hurry to make judgments on these things because there is a lot of uncertainty in this area, not only about how things will develop, but also how it will be transmitted to the UK economy." The IMF lowered its economic growth forecast on Tuesday, warning that if the war escalates and oil prices remain above $100 until 2027, the global economy may face the risk of recession, with the UK receiving the largest downward revision among large, wealthy economies.

Silver Prices Continue to Fall as the Dollar and Treasury Yields Extend Their Gains

Drake Hampton

Apr 20, 2022 09:57

Silver prices fell Wednesday as the currency and benchmark rates gained in the face of mounting inflation fears. The ten-year yield hit its highest level since 2018 near 2.93 percent Thursday, owing to a bond sell-off triggered by rising inflation. This circumstance has boosted yields.

 

Gold prices declined as the dollar rose in anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes to tackle soaring inflation. Oil prices fell in erratic trading despite an ongoing global supply constraint, as the IMF raised inflation concerns and lowered economic growth predictions.

 

Housing starts unexpectedly increased by 0.3% in March to 1.793 million seasonally adjusted units. Last month, building permits increased by 0.4 percent to 1.873 units on an annual basis.

 

Increased mortgage rates and supply chain delays are making it more difficult for buyers to purchase a home. However, the lack of available homes will continue to support housing starts this year.

Technical Evaluation

Silver prices gave back their gains from yesterday, falling to the low $25s. Silver prices are reverting lower despite increased inflation and global supply constraints caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This could be a temporary reversal brought either by investors buying the dip or a change to negative momentum.

 

Support is located near the $24.85 50-day moving average. Near the $26.40 level, resistance is located. Short-term momentum shifted negative as the fast stochastic crossed below the zero line, signaling a sell signal.

 

The medium-term momentum is good, but the histogram prints favorably with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram is in positive territory but is trending downward, reflecting the downward trend in price movement.

 

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