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On June 17, UBS published a research report, predicting that Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) will have an average annual compound growth rate of 9% in earnings per share between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2028, and the dividend yield in fiscal 2026 is expected to reach 6%. At the current price level, it is equivalent to a forecast price-earnings ratio of 14 times in the next 12 months, which is lower than the industry median of 15 times. The bank believes that Chow Tai Fook may be undervalued at present and is confident in its operating guidance for the new year. If the gold price continues to rise, there is room for an upward adjustment in the operating profit guidance. Based on the latest operating performance, performance guidance, higher same-store sales growth expectations, less gross profit margin pressure and more operating expense savings, UBS raised Chow Tai Fooks operating profit forecast for fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2027 by 20% to 21%, and its earnings per share forecast by 21% to 30%. The target price was raised from HK$12 to HK$16, and the earnings per share forecast for fiscal 2026 will increase by 51% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the reduction in gold lending losses, as well as brand transformation and product portfolio improvement. The rating is "buy".June 17, Citigroup said that it expects gold to fall back below $3,000 an ounce in the coming quarters. Analysts including Max Layton said: "By the second half of 2026, gold will return to about $2,500-2,700 an ounce." Weaker investment demand, improved global economic growth prospects, and the Federal Reserves interest rate cuts may all lead to a decline in gold prices. They said: "We believe that investment demand for gold will weaken in late 2025 and 2026 as Trumps popularity rises and the put option on US economic growth begins to take effect, especially as the US midterm elections become the focus." In addition, "we believe that the Federal Reserve has a lot of room to lower restrictive policies to neutral." In the banks basic forecast (with a probability of 60%), gold prices are expected to consolidate above $3,000 an ounce in the next quarter and then move lower.Sources said the G7 reached a statement on the Middle East issue.Both U.S. and Brent crude oil fell by $0.8 in the short term. It was reported that Trumps team proposed to negotiate with Iran this week.According to the AXIOS website: The Trump team proposed to negotiate with Iran on a nuclear agreement and ceasefire this week.

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD returns above mid-19.00s; bulls flirt with 100-day Simple Moving Average

Alina Haynes

Oct 26, 2022 15:25

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Silver rises on Tuesday's rebound from the 200-hour simple moving average support and adds follow-through momentum for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The upward move takes the precious metal back over the mid-$19.00 range during the early European session, bringing it closer to Monday's nearly two-week high.

 

The XAG/USD is currently flirting with the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which, if decisively broken, would open the way for a near-term advance. In the meantime, oscillators on hourly charts remain bullish and have only begun to move into the positive zone on the daily chart. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of a future breach of the aforementioned barrier.

 

The XAG/USD pair might then attempt to exceed the $20.00 psychological level and climb toward the next significant barrier near $20.50. Bulls might then attempt to retake the $21.00 round-number level. This corresponds to the 200-day exponential moving average, above which the momentum might finally drive spot prices back to the monthly swing high, around $21.25.

 

On the other hand, the $19.20 region appears to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $19.00 level and the 200-hour simple moving average, which is currently in the $18.80 zone. A convincing breach below could prompt some technical selling and make the XAG/USD susceptible to accelerate the decline towards the $18.30-$18.25 intermediate support en route to the next crucial level near $18.00.

 

Failure to defend the latter will nullify any near-term bullish bias and return the bias to favor bearish traders. The continuing decline has the potential to bring the XAG/USD pair closer to its September low of $17.55 for the year. The decline might extend to the next significant support near the $17.00 round-number mark.

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