EUR/USD
1.13590
0.008%
Gold
3987.51
-0.288%
Oil
69.345
-0.581%
USD/JPY
161.712
-0.047%
GBP/USD
1.31712
0.032%
GBP/JPY
212.999
-0.013%
Real-time News
Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura: I expect interest rates to be raised every few months until a neutral level of about 2% is reached.Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura: I believe Japans neutral interest rate will be around 2%.The yield on Japans 30-year government bonds fell 2.5 basis points to 3.840%.Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura: It is important to push the Bank of Japans policy rate toward a neutral level in order to avoid being forced to raise interest rates sharply later.On June 25th, Futures Markets reported that market participants told reporters that the resurgence of inflationary pressures in the US and the Federal Reserves hawkish signals have prompted the market to reassess the path of monetary policy this year, becoming the core driver of the recent decline in gold and silver prices. Jinrui Futures stated that the Fed continued to emphasize in its meeting statement that inflation remains above the long-term target of 2%, while also raising its PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts for the year. The dot plot also shows an overall upward shift in the policy rate path. For precious metals, this means that the real interest rates of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds are likely to rise simultaneously, reducing the attractiveness of gold as a non-interest-bearing asset. Gold and silver prices will remain under pressure in the short term, as the negative factors have not yet been fully priced in. Under the baseline scenario, the market has already begun pricing in the possibility of one to two Fed rate hikes this year, with the first hike potentially occurring as early as September. If US CPI, PCE, employment costs, and inflation expectations continue to strengthen in the future, the market may further trade expectations of an earlier start to rate hikes and a higher peak in interest rates, which will continue to suppress gold and silver prices. The breach of support levels at $4,000/oz for gold and $60/oz for silver may further dampen market confidence in a medium- to long-term rise in gold and silver prices. However, if oil prices gradually decline and PCE and inflation expectations cool down, while the Federal Reserve re-signals a wait-and-see approach, the downward momentum in gold and silver prices may weaken.
