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On July 13, French President Emmanuel Macron posted on social media on the 12th that France and the European Commission strongly opposed the US announcement that day to impose a 30% tariff on EU exports from August 1. Macron wrote that in the context of EU unity, the European Commission should demonstrate the EUs determination to defend its own interests. If Europe and the United States cannot reach an agreement before August 1, the EU should mobilize all tools, including anti-coercion mechanisms, to speed up the preparation of "credible countermeasures." France supports the European Commission and the United States to step up negotiations in order to reach an agreement acceptable to both sides before August 1.European Council President: The EU remains fully supportive of efforts to reach a fair agreement with the United States.July 12, Mathieu Savary, chief European strategist at BCA RESEARCH: Trumps strategy is to make outrageous demands, then let them fall through, and then once again try to win some last-minute concessions and then reach a trade deal. We remember a framework during Trumps first presidency, and thats whats happening now. It doesnt matter what is said now; what matters is where we will land. It is expected that the EU will eventually "have to accept a 10% tariff, but this is something the EU can actually deal with.The German Industry Association: The trade conflict between the EU and the US damages economic recovery and international trust. It calls on Germany, the EU and the US to seek a solution as soon as possible to avoid escalation.EU spokesperson: The United States notified the EU in advance of a letter regarding the imposition of a 30% tariff on EU goods from August 1.

S&P500 Update: The Correction Became Increasingly More Complex. Where Could It End?

Skylar Shaw

May 25, 2022 10:06

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Elliot Wave Analysis of the S&P 500

Until last week, the continuous correction in the S&P 500 (SPX) that I'd been following using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) had followed a conventional Fibonacci-based impulse pattern quite well (SF-BIP). For more than a month, just a few modifications were required. Thus, by last week, the index had done enough to the negative (see here) for the correction to be considered complete, as it had completed five waves down from the March 29 rebound high.


However, it chose to give us another "curveball" by dropping below the previous week's low. This dip adds to the continuing price action's intricacy and provides more evidence that the current price action is corrective since the all-time high (ATH). "I will have to adjust my present POV on a dip below last week's low," I said last week, and I will do so in this update.

S&P 500 Forecast and Bottom Line

Last week, the S&P500 had all the components to "either... rebound to preferably SPX4340+/-20 from whence I predict a last c-wave down to end the correction at SPX3750+/-25." Alternatively, the correction is ended and the index is on its way to about SPX4325+/-25. Before the wave-ii to new ATHs begins, I estimate a wave-ii fall to about SPX4100+/-75. On a decline below last week's low, I'll have to rethink my present outlook." As a result of last Friday's dip, I had to adjust my outlook, and the index is currently at a fork in the road:


Hold around today's lows for a rise above yesterday's high to SPX4160, then drop to 4050 and rally to 4225 for a more substantial impulsive route. Alternatively, we may drop below last Friday's low, preferably SPX3732-3762, before looking for another probable upward impulse.

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