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On July 13th, Daiwa issued a research report predicting that Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) will raise its AI capital expenditure forecast, which will put pressure on its mid-term earnings. Meanwhile, while growth in the gaming business has slowed due to a high base, its market share growth momentum remains strong. The bank lowered its 2026-2028 earnings per share forecasts for the company by 1% to 6% to reflect the impact. Daiwa significantly raised its 2026 AI capital expenditure forecast for Tencent from RMB 108 billion to approximately RMB 181 billion to reflect the companys stronger commitment to AI investment and improved chip supply. Although higher depreciation will drag down its near-to-mid-term earnings performance, it is also expected to drive faster expansion of the cloud business and monetization of AI demand, which is expected to be released from the second half of 2026. Daiwa maintains its "Buy" rating on Tencent, but lowers its target price from HKD 700 to HKD 670.On July 13th, SenseTime (00020.HK) officially released and fully open-sourced its daily-new SenseNova-Vision unified visual model, marking a significant upgrade to the visual capabilities of SenseTimes daily-new large model system. The core innovation of SenseNova-Vision is to make vision a native capability of the general-purpose basic model, completely integrating it into the large model system. All classic visual tasks such as object detection, image segmentation, depth prediction, and 3D reconstruction are thus natively unified.The Jordanian military said it intercepted and shot down four missiles that entered its airspace from Iran.July 13 – As a $1.8 trillion rally that propelled Asian chipmakers to the ranks of the worlds largest companies begins to reverse, investors are cutting back on bets on Asian chip stocks, raising concerns about their excessive weighting in emerging market indices. Funds such as Fidelity International and BlackRock are expressing concern about the sustainability of the bull run in stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Over the past six months, the combined market capitalization of these three companies has nearly doubled, and their combined weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is now approximately 29%, exceeding the weighting of most single countries. Caroline Shaw, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, stated that the high concentration of the index, coupled with the significant increase in leveraged bets on South Korean chip stocks amplifying price volatility, are "worrying signs." In the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the weighting of these three stocks is currently almost three times the total weighting of all Indian stocks, and SK Hynix alone has a weighting exceeding the combined weighting of Brazil and South Africa. Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, said the firm is “happy to take profits at this stage” and reduce its overweight position in emerging market stocks relative to benchmarks due to the volatility in some large chip and memory stocks.According to the Financial Times, serious divisions within the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee make it more difficult for the bank to rebuild its credibility after five years of inflation exceeding its target.

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Look Threatened

Steven Zhao

Oct 08, 2022 14:31

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Weekly Technical Analysis for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 attempted to rise during the week, but it gave up a significant portion of the gain as we ultimately formed an inverted hammer. It goes without saying that the inverted hammer, which is right below the 200-Week in May, merits notice as well. The 3700 level was a previously supported location, which is maybe even more significant, so it would make sense that it would have a lot of inherent resistance.


The week's inverted hammer shape does indicate that we are prepared to fall lower. It is conceivable that we would seek for the 3500 level if we were to collapse below the inverted hammer's bottom. You should be paying attention to the 3500 level since it is a large, rounded number with psychological significance that undoubtedly will generate a lot of media attention.


Alternately, the market is likely to go for the 4000 level if we were to break over the top of the inverted hammer. Although I don't believe that occurs, it is something to be aware of. In the end, the Federal Reserve's mishandling of the stock market is a problem, and it is clear that they are not prepared to continue tightening monetary policy. You will need to keep an eye on the interest rate sector and bond market to pay special attention to where we should go next at this point since it's possible that increasing interest rates will continue to act against the stock market.