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On Monday, July 13, the Hang Seng Index opened down 17.47 points, or 0.07%, at 24,157.65; the Hang Seng Tech Index opened down 1.98 points, or 0.04%, at 4,719.68; the H-share Index opened up 3.07 points, or 0.04%, at 8,042.26; and the Red Chip Index opened up 14.61 points, or 0.38%, at 3,865.65.On July 13th, Barclays stated that although oil prices have fallen significantly from their peak during the Iran conflict, its inflation forecasts have deteriorated. In a report to clients, the bank stated that the Federal Reserves policy path of keeping interest rates unchanged this year, rather than raising them, has narrowed considerably in recent months. However, the bank added that this remains its base case scenario. The oil price shocks have come and gone, but inflation has not, due to the current overall strength of the US economy; therefore, the decline in oil prices cannot relieve the Federal Reserve of its inflation concerns.On July 13th, Chen Weicong, Investment Strategist at Bank of East Asia Wealth Management, pointed out that factors such as increased AI investment by technology companies and rising energy and memory production costs have led to a weaker-than-expected recovery in the earnings of heavyweight tech and consumer stocks. Therefore, he lowered his earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index this year and reduced his target for the Hang Seng Index from 29,000 points to 27,100 points. He reiterated that the current forward P/E ratio for Hong Kong stocks is only 10 times, slightly lower than the average of about 10.5 times over the past 10 years, indicating gradually emerging valuation attractiveness. He believes the recent market downturn presents a buying opportunity and expects a phased rebound in the market in the second half of the year, but this rebound is unlikely to last long. If the July Politburo meeting releases more pro-growth policies, it could become a potential catalyst for the rebound.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: The escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend put pressure on London spot gold in early trading on Monday. Looking back at last week, gold prices both domestically and internationally experienced increased volatility, continuing their weekly decline. Spot gold fell 1.51% for the week, while the Shanghai Gold Futures contract fell 1.48%. Geopolitically, a new round of conflict erupted between the US and Iran. With both sides intensifying their attacks, the risk of unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has increased again. Rising oil prices and inflation expectations have contributed to short-term weakness in gold prices. 1. Macroeconomic Overview: Disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy communication methods are surfacing. Governor Waller stated that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool, contrasting with Warshs stance. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on July 15th. This hearing will focus on the Feds semi-annual monetary policy report submitted to Congress, potentially providing some guidance on interest rates and the direction of monetary policy. 2. The precious metals market will face a double test with Warshs congressional debut and CPI data releases. On July 14th, the US June CPI will be released on the same day as Warshs House hearing, followed by the PPI data release on the 15th, after which Warsh will testify before the Senate. The resonance between inflation data and policy signals will influence precious metal price movements. With the US and Iran entering a second round of conflict, the market initially returned to trading based on rising inflation and interest rate expectations. However, judging from the weekly performance of oil and gold prices, the sustainability of this conflict is not optimistic. Furthermore, there were no further positive factors to drive a significant rebound in gold prices; the overall trend remains weak and corrective. This indicates that the current bottoming-out range for gold is not stable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policies repeatedly intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears, requiring continued caution.US President Trump: 59% approval rating. Inflation is declining, and oil and gas prices are also falling.

S&P 500 (SPY) Rallies As Dollar Pulls Back From Highs

Cory Russell

Sep 29, 2022 14:34

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Throughout electronic trading overnight in Asia, the S&P 500 originally declined, but the E-mini contract proved to be durable during trade, and now it seems that we are attempting to build some sort of support. Having said that, the fact that we have reached a "lower low" indicates that the overall structure is still highly unfavorable. Because of this, I believe it's just a matter of time until we see new lows, but in the meanwhile, let's have a little rebound to shake a few folks about.


At this point, I would consider any rise to be a possible selling opportunity, at the very least at the first indications of tiredness. As the 50-Day EMA is falling and moving toward the market, the 3800 level makes a lot of sense as a barrier.


I do believe that traders will continue to sell off short-term gains in this scenario, but the odd relief rally does make a lot of sense. We have, after all, moved too quickly and drastically to the negative in this circumstance. So be it if the market gains. Although I won't be participating, I'll be on the lookout for a chance to go short once again. The Bank of England has opted to increase its bond purchases, and while it's probably important to note that they are rising rates concurrently, the Federal Reserve is nothing near relaxing monetary policy at this moment, so you probably have a lot of people purchasing.


Today on Wall Street, the story will almost certainly go something like this: "If the Bank of England is prepared to change course, then the Federal Reserve must be prepared as well!" These idiots are the ones that incur losses. Nothing has changed, and as of right now, the higher it rises, the more interested I am in selling.


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