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Real-time News
On September 10th, the "2026 Financial Institutions Annual Meeting," hosted by the Securities Times, was held in Shenzhen. Zhu Jiang, Deputy Director of the Shenzhen Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated in his address that Shenzhen, connecting the world, serves as a window for comprehensively deepening reform and opening up in the new era. He expressed hope that financial institutions would fully utilize major policy platforms such as Qianhai and the Hetao area to deepen Shenzhen-Hong Kong financial cooperation, pioneering trials in cross-border RMB, cross-border settlement, and cross-border wealth management. He noted that there are currently eight different interconnectivity mechanisms between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, with a positive development trend. Zhu Jiang stated that Shenzhens financial industry is in a period of significant strategic opportunity and sincerely looks forward to working hand in hand with all sectors to jointly write a new chapter in high-quality financial development.On September 10th, Aberdeen economist Felix Feather stated that a rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) this month is "almost a foregone conclusion," adding that the more important question is whether the ECBs rhetoric will suggest to the market that this rate hike is merely the next step in a continued tightening cycle. "The ECBs stance is likely to be hawkish," Feather said. "The resilience shown by the Eurozone economy has exceeded the ECBs expectations, and high energy prices, stronger forward wage indicators, and slightly higher market inflation expectations will keep policymakers focused on upside risks." Feather pointed out that because the economic impact of the war has been more limited than expected, the ECB may revise its economic growth forecast upwards, but he also stated that after Thursdays meeting, interest rates "may still remain at 2.5% for an extended period." He said, "Core inflation indicators continue to decline, wage pressures remain relatively manageable, and there are currently only sporadic signs that the energy shock is triggering widespread secondary effects. However, this may require de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East between the US and Iran to stabilize energy markets, which currently seems unlikely."1. Goldman Sachs: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, with the baseline forecast remaining that the current tightening cycle will end after a rate hike in September. However, if energy prices remain high, inflation strengthens significantly, and the Federal Reserve raises rates in the coming months, the risk of a further rate hike in December will continue to rise. 2. ING: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, but it will be a dovish hike, or at least the signals released after the rate hike will not be sufficient to support the markets current expectations of further tightening. 3. Scotiabank: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points while maintaining a relatively hawkish policy tone to curb energy-driven inflation risks and ease price pressures. 4. Reuters poll: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, after which it will stop raising rates, and the deposit rate will remain at 2.50% until the end of 2026. 5. Danske Bank: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Lagarde will maintain ample flexibility, leaving room for further tightening, but will not pre-commit to a continued path of rate hikes, and is not expected to explicitly express any intention to suppress tightening expectations. 6. Deutsche Bank: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, with another rate hike in December. Continued energy risks are putting pressure on the inflation outlook. 2.75% is considered a more likely terminal level, and a faster easing of geopolitical tensions and weaker growth could keep the upper limit of interest rates at 2.5%. 7. Natixis: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Lagarde is expected to take a relatively neutral stance, thus avoiding market expectations of a prolonged rate hike cycle. After this rate hike, the bank is expected to pause rate hikes until the end of 2027. 8. Rabobank: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates, and its statements on the future policy path are expected to be more restrained than currently priced into by the market. Lagarde may keep all policy options open, avoiding strong pre-commitments. 9. Nordea Bank: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates, and this meeting will be the last rate hike of this cycle, although uncertainty remains. Inflation is not expected to remain above the target level for an extended period, which will be a key reason for the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged for some time. 10. BNP Paribas: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates once in September and once in December. The September meeting may see upward revisions to economic growth and inflation forecasts, further supporting the case for tightening monetary policy. 11. MUFG: The market has fully priced in the ECBs 25 basis point rate hike expectation. Market reaction may depend more on the central banks latest forward guidance than on the rate hike decision itself. If Lagarde does not explicitly support another rate hike before the end of the year, the euro may weaken moderately. 12. State Street Global Advisors: The ECB may combine the expected rate hike with signals of a willingness to remain open. The focus is not on the September decision itself, but on whether the 2.50% interest rate is considered sufficiently restrictive, and whether the central bank reserves policy space for December.Germanys final harmonized CPI monthly rate for August was 0.2%, in line with expectations and down from 0.20% previously.Germanys final August CPI annual rate was 2.9%, in line with expectations and down from 2.90% previously.
