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August 26th - As markets closely watch for clues about the timing of the Bank of Japans next interest rate hike, BOJ watchers will be closely monitoring Deputy Governor Ryozo Himinos speech on Thursday. SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Ataru Okumura stated, "While there are limitations to how much a single speech by a BOJ deputy governor can guide market expectations, the focus will be on how firm his wording is on controlling inflation." Okumura added that although the bond market firmly expects the BOJ to raise rates sooner rather than later, investors doubt the banks ability to push rates above the restrictive level of 2%, making the future path of interest rates a key focus for the market.August 26th - According to the Financial Times, US Treasury Secretary Bessetts intervention in the bond market runs counter to the Federal Reserves efforts to curb inflation. Bessetts unexpected intervention in the US Treasury market caused yields to initially fall before rising, triggering a market reaction that puts greater pressure on Warshs speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. Warsh has consistently emphasized that investors should rely more on economic data and market prices rather than waiting for "forward guidance" from central bank officials to tell the market about future interest rate trends. There are now concerns that if Bessetts efforts to control yields remain ineffective, the Federal Reserve may also face pressure to intervene in the market. Warsh and Bessett are both protégés of billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, and the two reportedly have a close relationship and meet frequently. However, the current impression is that their respective Treasury departments and the Federal Reserve are "moving in opposite directions."ECB Executive Board member Schnabel: At the current policy rate, inflation is unlikely to return to the target level in the medium term, and further tightening of policy will be necessary.ECB Executive Board member Schnabel: The risks to economic growth are slightly tilted to the upside.ECB Executive Board member Schnabel: Given the resilience of the economy, interest rates must be raised further.

S&P 500 Price Forecast — Stock Markets Wait for Jackson Hole Results

Alice Wang

Aug 25, 2022 15:20

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

During the trading session on Wednesday, the S&P 500 briefly declined, but soon began to rebound. The market seems to be attempting to establish a little short-term basis at this time. Therefore, the Jackson Hole Symposium and of course Jerome Powell's address on Friday are expected to be closely watched by the market.


Currently, we are trading above the 50-day EMA and below the 200-day EMA. Since we are squeezed between these two moving averages, it is possible that we will have an explosive move at some point in the future. In the end, the market is trying to determine if the Federal Reserve will start acting aggressively tight or whether it will keep feeding the Wall Street speculators. Looking at this chart, it is clear that the market will likely remain volatile. It is also important to note that we just had a significant decline, so we may need to take a little break.


The chance of a move down to the 4000 level in the E-mini contract, and maybe much lower, arises if we were to break down below the 50-day EMA. Currently, we are attempting to determine if the market is attempting to enter a period of bull market activity or whether we have just corrected the overall image of a downturn. In all likelihood, the next several days will be quiet until we see how the speech was received. It's also important to keep in mind that Wall Street often makes mistakes on the first day before reversing sharply the next day.

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