S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stocks Continue to Eye a Major Resistance Barrier

The S&P 500 E-mini contract dipped somewhat during Monday's trading session, but it is still keeping an eye on the 4300 level.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has slightly declined throughout the trading session on Monday, indicating some hesitancy. Because traders had previously been able to disregard all of the warning indicators about the global economy, bad economic figures coming out of China early in the day had placed much of the globe on the back foot. However, given that the market is primarily concerned with whether Wall Street will get free or inexpensive financing from the Federal Reserve, it has done rather well in its capacity to ignore a lot of negative news.

It will depend on what the bond market prices. At the moment, a recession is driving down interest rates, so the bond markets are beginning to factor this in. It's possible that even stock traders will buy into their own nonsense about the Federal Reserve easing policy much sooner than they're letting on. The United States' annual rate of inflation is still 8.5% at this moment, thus the Federal Reserve cannot assist Wall Street. (Or at least not yet.)

Having said that, the narrative that Uncle Jerome is coming to save everyone is what the market is concentrating on. He and the rest of the institution have a long history of saving the stock market since they were day traders themselves until they were discovered little over a year ago. The Federal Reserve's reputation will be greatly impacted by whether or not they rescue the market, so this conflict is still quite intriguing.

Simply expressed, I believe this market will rise well over the 4300 level. This is the final significant line of defense I see on the chart, so we need to see a daily close above there. The retreat will occur if we are unable to overcome that barrier.