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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire and peace talks emerged, leading to a strengthening of precious metals overnight. London spot gold rose steadily, returning to $4,500/ounce in early trading on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.19%, and SHFE gold rose 0.37%. The US government is seeking a one-month ceasefire for negotiations. While proposing a ceasefire, it is also accelerating troop buildup. As of press time, Iran has not responded, but on the evening of the 24th, Irans Bushehr nuclear power plant was attacked again by the US and Israel. A key turning point in geopolitical events has emerged, causing a sharp decline in crude oil prices and a rebound in gold prices. However, uncertainty remains in the US-Iran negotiations, leading to increased volatility in gold prices during the day. 2. The market continues to focus on the US-Iran conflict. The US president stated that US-Iran negotiations "may be quite close to reaching an agreement," and Iran agreed never to possess nuclear weapons. Reports indicate that the US intends to implement a one-month ceasefire and has proposed a 15-point peace plan. The expectation of a de-escalation in US-Iran relations has been a major factor in the recent market sentiment recovery, highlighting the markets sensitivity to geopolitical situations. However, the future of US-Iran negotiations and conflict remains uncertain, meaning gold prices may remain highly volatile. Conservative investors may continue to observe, while aggressive investors are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, especially after the rapid release of short-selling sentiment, which presents better buying opportunities. Silver, platinum, and palladium are currently fluctuating in tandem with gold, increasing the difficulty of trading. Gold plays a significant role as a "ballast" among precious metals; attention should be paid to when gold prices return to an upward trend, and investors should wait for the right opportunity to act.The White House announced that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) review board will continue operating for another 10 days, or until May 29, 2026, whichever is earlier, after submitting the required report to the President.A White House executive order extends the operating period of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) review board.SK Hynix: HBMs total shipments will remain stable this year.On March 25th, Moodys analyst Sunny Nguyen stated that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may have "not many reasons" to ease its hawkish monetary policy stance. She pointed out that Australias non-tradable inflation rate remains around 5%, rents have risen slightly, and the oil shock triggered by the Middle East conflict has not yet affected Marchs inflation data. Furthermore, she noted that the Australian Bureau of Statistics unusually explicitly stated that fuel prices had already fallen "before the Middle East conflict." "This wording is deliberate," Nguyen said. "The situation in March will be very different." She indicated that Australias overall inflation rate could surge to around 4.5%.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Consolidation Continues in the S&P 500 E-mini Contract

Jimmy Khan

Feb 10, 2023 15:30

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Thursday's trading session saw a minor increase in optimistic sentiment for the S&P 500 as the E-mini contract increased once again. Having said that, we do generally continue to coil, and I believe that will likely be the case moving ahead.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

As we continue to trade in the same range that we have been in for the last week or so, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has marginally risen during Thursday's trading session. We are now in the middle of earnings season, which is characterized by a lot of noise that will continue to give people problems.


Breaking over the 4200 level would be a really powerful indicator, but I don't see it occurring very quickly since it seems to be a highly resistant level. This puts us in a position where, if we break below this level, we might descend all the way to the downtrend line, where the 50-Day EMA is just about to cross the 200-Day EMA.


The S&P 500 E-mini contract's short-term "floor in the market" is now believed to be that golden cross region, which also happens to be the 4000 level. However, I believe that ultimately you have to see this through the lens of a market that is extremely choppy and unsteady. Anything below there may unleash a tremendous wave of selling. If that's the case, it will be challenging to sled, so you need to be careful with the size of your position. Having said that, it's perhaps important to note that the recent highs have been steadily declining. Something is likely going to move swiftly and soon.