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On November 16th, according to the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Rehn stated that the risk of slowing inflation should not be ignored. Low energy prices, a stronger euro, and declining wage and service sector inflation all suggest that overall inflation may be excessively below the ECBs 2% target. When asked if the ECB might cut interest rates again in December, Rehn said, "This risk cannot be underestimated." However, he also cautioned against the potential for rising inflation. Rehn stated that despite the Trump administrations tariff policies disrupting global trade, the Eurozone economy has shown resilience. Rehn also warned that the stock market "clearly faces the risk of a correction," emphasizing the importance of bank capital buffers. Driven by the US artificial intelligence boom, current stock prices appear high relative to the performance of the real economy and corporate profits. This requires caution.On November 16th, it was reported that the United States and Trinidad and Tobago are about to conduct military exercises in waters near the coast of Venezuelas Sucre state. On November 15th, Venezuelan President Maduro strongly condemned the exercises, calling the action "irresponsible" and a "threat" to peace in the Caribbean. Maduro stated that such actions are intended to put pressure on Venezuela, but Venezuela "will not be threatened by anyone." Recently, Trinidad and Tobagos Attorney General John Jeremy stated that the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit will be "intensifying exercises" in the country "in the coming days."1. Hungarian Prime Minister: Europe is on the brink of war. 2. Ukraine claims 1,200 Ukrainian prisoners will be released; Russia has not yet responded. 3. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian troops have taken control of the Yablokovo settlement in Zaporizhia. 4. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has ordered a comprehensive reform of state-owned energy companies. 5. According to RIA Novosti: The situation remains stable after an external power line to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant was shut down. 6. Southern Ukrainian Defense Forces: Ukrainian troops have conducted a tactical withdrawal from the town of Novovasilivsk in the Zaporizhia region. 7. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: A Russian oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast was attacked by Ukrainian forces; the refinery produces 840,000 tons of aviation fuel and other military fuels annually. 8. Russian Ministry of Defense: 247 Ukrainian drones were shot down in the past 24 hours. A Ukrainian military airport and energy facility related to the defense industry were attacked. 9. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Ukrainian forces struck the Sky-U radar station in Crimea, a military train in the Tokmok region of Zaporizhzhia, and a Russian troop assembly point in Volchansk, Kharkiv region.On November 16, the Kremlin announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone conversation on November 15, during which they had in-depth exchanges on the situation in the Middle East, including developments in the Gaza Strip, Irans nuclear program, and the situation in Syria.On November 15th, a Federal Reserve official revealed that former Federal Reserve Governor Kugler resigned abruptly because Federal Reserve Chairman Powell refused to grant her an exemption from handling financial assets that violated the Feds code of ethics. The official stated that Kugler was under investigation by the Feds internal oversight body for recent financial reporting issues before her resignation in August. Documents released on Saturday show that officials at the Feds Office of Ethics refused to approve Kuglers latest financial reporting materials and referred the matter to the Feds Office of the Inspector General. These reporting materials, published on the website of the U.S. Government Office of Ethics, indicate details of her financial activities that allegedly violated the Feds internal code of ethics. Kugler announced her resignation on August 1st, effective August 8th, without specifying a reason.

S&P 500 Price Forecast -S&P 500 E-mini Contract Slams Into 3900

Florala Chen

Nov 11, 2022 16:58

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The CPI data released during the trading session on Thursday were only at 0.4% month over month instead of 0.6% month over month, and as a result, the S&P 500 E-mini contract rocketed straight up in the air. With that said, the market will most certainly continue to witness a lot of people fantasizing about a softer Fed. Nevertheless, given that the US economy is still much tighter than most of the rest of the world, even if the upcoming interest rate hike is only by 50 basis points, I do believe that eventually the US dollar will start to fall along with the S&P 500.


Technically speaking, it is clear that we have banged into the 3900 level, which has obviously been supported and resisted numerous times along the road. Beautiful candlestick for the Thursday session, but can the market keep rising further? If it fails, we can go for the 200-Day EMA, which is now trading at the level of 4027. On the other hand, if we reverse course and draw back, we might head in the direction of the 50-Day EMA, which is close to 3826.


Pay attention to how the markets close out the week if you want to know what they are really thinking. They are far more confident if they are prepared to keep stocks through the weekend. Being able to maintain the first surge through both Saturday and Sunday is quite another thing altogether. This is currently a severe countertrend motion, although it hasn't yet grown any larger.

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