EUR/USD
1.13249
0.214%
Gold
3391.99
0.818%
Oil
58.319
1.110%
USD/JPY
143.646
-0.128%
GBP/USD
1.33409
0.369%
GBP/JPY
191.641
0.276%
Real-time News
Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at todays meeting. At least two members support a 50 basis point cut, reflecting the warming of dovish sentiment within the committee. In addition, the wording of the policy guidance is expected to change, and the "gradual" statement is expected to be deleted, paving the way for consecutive rate cuts. Morgan Stanley expects that by the end of 2025, the Bank of Englands bank rate will drop from the current 4.50% to 3.25%.On May 8, Matthias Scheiber, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said that the next possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will not come until September or even later. He pointed out that the Fed expects to cut interest rates only twice this year, while the market expects three times. The interest rate market expects the Fed to cut interest rates to around 3.6% by the end of 2025, but much depends on how the trade-off between inflation and growth develops. Economic growth may continue to weaken, and the Federal Reserve would ideally like to cut interest rates to support economic growth-although in the short term, rising prices may make this tricky. Stock market performance is expected to continue to fluctuate and will continue to favor cheaper markets among U.S. stocks, international stocks and emerging market stocks.Ukrainian Air Force: Russia fired guided bombs into Ukraines Sumy region for the third time on Thursday.On May 8, Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece", said that Powell downplayed any speculation that the Fed was seeking to ease the economic weakness caused by Trumps tariffs by cutting interest rates. Powell mentioned the word "wait" 22 times in the press conference to emphasize that the Fed is not in a hurry to act. This remark exposed the monetary policy divergence between the United States and other economies caused by Trumps trade policy. The reason is simple. Other economies have not significantly increased taxes on imported goods. The problem they face is weak demand and employment, but there is no impact of rising prices that the Federal Reserve may have to deal with later this year. In addition, because the US economy has just experienced a period of high inflation, the Federal Reserve believes that it cannot risk preemptively cutting interest rates to support slowing employment, so as not to aggravate price pressures in the short term. As a result, the Federal Reserves position is different from that of the European, Canadian and British central banks. Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates after seeing evidence of a significant slowdown in economic growth, and it may be a quick cut.On May 8, Cong Lin, deputy director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the Financial Regulatory Bureau has jointly created an information docking and sharing mechanism. Offline, the Financial Regulatory Bureau and the National Development and Reform Commission have established a coordination mechanism to support the financing of small and micro enterprises, promoting credit funds to reach the grassroots level quickly and conveniently, with appropriate interest rates. Through this mechanism, 12.6 trillion yuan of new loans have been issued to small and micro entities, with an average interest rate of 3.66%; online, it has promoted the establishment of credit information sharing and financial comprehensive service platforms in many places, allowing data to run more and enterprises and banks to run less, and using data information to support banks in issuing credit loans. At the end of the first quarter, the balance of credit loans for private enterprises was 18.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%.
