• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
The Israeli military has not yet commented on the reports of the Gaza attack.Russian Ministry of Defense: Air defense system shot down 45 Ukrainian drones overnight.Silver prices have hit record highs recently. Data from the Korea Gold Exchange showed that on October 17th, the price of silver reached 2,467 won (approximately 12 yuan) per gram, a year-to-date increase of nearly 70%, exceeding the increase in gold over the same period. This surge in demand for silver among South Korean investors has led to tight market supply. So far this year, major South Korean commercial banks have generated cumulative silver bar sales of 10.4 billion won (approximately 52.08 million yuan), 13 times higher than the same period last year. Due to the shortage of silver bars in the market, South Korean commercial banks and major precious metals sales platforms have announced that they will suspend silver bar sales starting on the 20th of this month.1. October 24th – Federal employees, whether furloughed or working, will miss their first full paycheck, forcing lawmakers to act. They have already missed partial paychecks, placing significant financial strain on over 2 million employees and their families. 2. October 31st – The Trump administration this week deployed $8 billion in unused research and development funds from fiscal year 2025 to ensure 1.3 million active-duty military personnel receive their October 15th paycheck. However, whether this can be done again before Halloween (November 1st) remains uncertain. 3. October 31st and November 5th – Senate clerks will miss their first full paycheck on October 20th (paid on the 5th and 20th of each month). House clerks will miss their paychecks at the end of October (paid at the end of each month) and, if they do, will not receive their paychecks until after Thanksgiving, creating significant financial hardship. 4. November 1st – Open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act. Healthcare is a primary concern for the shutdown, with Democrats aiming to pressure Republicans to reach an agreement on strengthening subsidies for Obamacare before open enrollment begins. 5. November 21 – If the shutdown continues into late November, it could lead to TSA staffing shortages and air traffic control issues for Americans during the busy Thanksgiving travel week. Air traffic control chaos in early 2019 was a key factor in forcing the government to end the longest shutdown in history.On October 19th, local time, Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar welcomed the ceasefire agreement reached between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Doha, Qatar, on the evening of the 18th on social media, calling it "the first step in the right direction." Dar also expressed hope that at the next round of meetings hosted by Turkey, a concrete and verifiable monitoring mechanism would be established to address the threat of attacks from Afghanistan into Pakistan. On the same day, Afghan government spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid issued a statement announcing that negotiations between Afghan and Pakistani representatives in Qatar had concluded with the signing of a bilateral agreement. Neither side will take any hostile actions against the other, nor will they support groups that attack the Pakistani government. Both sides will refrain from targeting each others security forces, civilians, or critical infrastructure. A mechanism will be established to review bilateral positions and ensure the effective implementation of the agreement, mediated by an intermediary.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook for The Week Ahead

Alice Wang

Aug 08, 2022 15:10

微信截图_20220804145155.png


All speculation that the Fed will lower the rate of interest rate increases has now been put on hold as the central bank continues to aim for persistently high inflation in the wake of Friday's labor report. The most recent NFP data, which shows the US employment market in excellent condition, refutes recent rumors that the Fed may change course on interest rates in response to a slowing economy.


The Fed will have greater freedom to raise rates higher and quicker thanks to today's publication, but it is just one piece of information. Although the Fed uses semantics to claim that everything is OK, a study at the US Treasury market reveals that the UST2s/10s curve is inverting even further, presently at a level of roughly -40bps. Data releases are still crucial, as usual, and Fed talk also has to be carefully monitored.


Next week, all eyes will be on the inflation data released on Wednesday, with another little increase in core inflation predicted. However, if this data reveals dropping inflation, it would encourage ideas of a "soft landing" in the US, giving the Federal Reserve its ideal situation.


The Nasdaq 100's latest rise tried and failed to breach trend resistance off the high from late December 2021. The tech-heavy indexes have been on the rise recently, rising more than 20% from their low on June 16. Trading may soon go back to the "sell the rise" habit that has worked them so well since the end of 2021 as the current "buy the decline" mentality during the previous six weeks seems to be done for the time being.

AUGUST 5, 2022: NASDAQ 100 DAILY PRICE CHART

In addition, the S&P 500 rise has been stopped after reaching a new two-month high this week. While the S&P 500 will continue to be under pressure, the downside for the indices will probably be more constrained than the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The indexes have made a series of higher lows over the last 6 to 8 weeks.

August 5, 2022 in the S&P 500 Daily Price Chart

According to statistics from retail traders, 1.66 traders for every 1 short trader shows a net long position of 37.63 percent. While the number of traders who are net-long is up 3.09 percent from yesterday and down 0.15 percent from the previous week, the number of traders who are net-short is up 0.77 percent from yesterday and up 17.15 percent.


We often adopt a contrarian stance to the general consensus, and the fact that traders are net-short means that US 500 prices may climb in the future.


Positioning is more net-short from last week than it was yesterday. We have a further mixed US 500 trade bias based on the current mood and previous adjustments