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On April 20th, Mitsubishi UFJ Bank stated that current political uncertainty in the UK could lead to further depreciation of the pound. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces calls for resignation following the approval of former British Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, despite failing the vetting process. Starmer is expected to address Parliament at 14:30 GMT. These developments have reignited speculation about a potential leadership change should the ruling Labour Party perform poorly in the May local elections. So far, the negative impact on the pound has been relatively limited, but political developments in the UK could trigger a more significant sell-off in the coming month.Romanian President: We may be entering a period of political turmoil. Nevertheless, the ruling party has reached an agreement on budget targets and EU funding.April 20th - According to five sources familiar with the Bank of Japans (BOJ) thinking, the BOJ is unlikely to raise interest rates next week. The dwindling hope for a swift end to the Middle East conflict has left Japans economic and price outlook uncertain. While the final decision remains somewhat uncertain and depends on the progress of peace talks between the US and Iran, the sources said the central bank prefers to maintain the status quo this month to allow more time to assess the impact of the conflict. One source stated, "Given the current level of uncertainty, the BOJ might consider maintaining the status quo this month feasible." Another source echoed this sentiment. A third source said the BOJ is unlikely to raise rates, as the market has already fully priced in the possibility of no rate hike this month. These sources added that even if the BOJ keeps rates unchanged next week, given escalating inflationary pressures, the bank is likely to signal it is prepared to raise rates as early as June.Sources say the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates at its April meeting.German Chancellor Merz: Brazil has great potential to expand its niobium and rare earth supply, and Germany can provide the relevant technology.

S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Stumbling on The Edge of a Cliff

Skylar Shaw

May 09, 2022 10:53


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The monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) will be announced at 12:30 UK today, with the market expecting 391k new jobs in April, down from 431k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5 percent, while average hourly earnings are expected to stay constant at 0.4 percent month over month. The US employment market is strong, and unless today's news disappoints, traders will continue to price in higher US interest rates, keeping the US dollar bought. Both John Williams and Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will talk later today, and they may provide some further insight on the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

 

The 500 chart demonstrates how technical analysis may be useful even in turbulent times. The bullish hammer candle we saw on Monday led to a big comeback until yesterday's sell-off, while the resistance zone we saw around 4,300–4,310 maintained on Wednesday and Thursday. If 4,060 holds, the S&P 500 will have a chance to rebound in the near term; otherwise, 4,035 will come into play quite rapidly. Any efforts to go higher should be met with resistance in the 4,300–4,310 range. Volatility is still at an all-time high.

 

According to retail trader statistics, 68.09 percent of traders are net-long, with a long-to-short ratio of 2.13 to 1. The number of traders who are net-long is up 18.01 percent from yesterday and up 16.33 percent from last week, while those who are net-short is down 26.33 percent from yesterday and 14.60 percent from last week.


We usually take the other side of popular mood, and the fact that traders are net-long signals that the US 500 will continue to decline. Traders are more net-long today than they were yesterday and last week, and the combination of current mood and previous movements gives us a greater contrarian trading bias in the US 500.

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