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On May 16th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Stournaras stated that a small interest rate hike by the ECB could curb inflation without causing economic damage. Even if the inflation rate is significantly above the target level for a period of time, as long as it is temporary, future tightening of monetary policy should be more moderate. This would both curb further inflation and avoid excessive shock to economic activity. The duration and intensity of the energy crisis, and its transmission mechanism to the real economy, will also determine the ECBs response. The ECB will continue to closely assess all available data and is prepared to set policy rates at a level consistent with maintaining price stability in the medium term. This typically dovish official emphasized that there is currently no strong evidence of a second round of inflation, but he also warned of rising uncertainty, as damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region could prolong inflationary pressures in the medium term. Extended delivery times and rising input costs indicate that supply chains are facing increasing pressure.May 16th - Despite geopolitical tensions and a flood of synthetic diamonds, Zimbabwes main state-owned diamond miner plans to produce 5 million carats of diamonds this year, up from 3.8 million carats in 2025. Douglas Zambangor, CEO of United Diamonds Zimbabwe, told lawmakers in the eastern town of Mutare that the countrys diamond industry has experienced a more severe downturn than the international market due to a series of local problems. While international rough diamond prices have fallen by 26% to 35%, Zimbabwean diamonds have plummeted from a peak of $79 per carat to $22 per carat due to product mix issues, geopolitical tensions, synthetic diamonds, market collusion, and an unfavorable sales framework. The international diamond market remains sluggish, especially for unique rough diamonds, with prices projected to range between $22 and $34 per carat by 2026. In contrast, other producers are averaging $100 per carat for high-quality rough diamonds.May 16th - According to sources, FIFA Secretary General Matthias Grafström will meet with officials from the Iranian Football Federation in Istanbul, Turkey, on the 16th. FIFA will "assure" Iran that it will be able to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. US Secretary of State Rubio previously stated that Iranian footballers will be welcomed at this World Cup, but also warned that the US may still ban Iranian team members with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from entering the country.May 16 - According to sources cited by Irans state news agency, Pakistani Interior Minister Naqvi arrived in Tehran a few hours ago to meet with Iranian officials.May 16th - On May 16th local time, in the first round of the WorldSSP class of the 2026 World Superbike Championship (WSBK) Czech Republic, Valentin Debis, the No. 53 French rider from Chinese motorcycle manufacturer "Zhang Xue Motorcycle", won the championship.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Fails at the 200-Day EMA

Skylar Shaw

Jan 13, 2023 15:57

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Following the release of the consistent CPI statistics, the S&P 500 E-mini contract crossed over the 200-Day EMA during early trading on Thursday. Because the results were as anticipated, speculators are beginning to wager that the Federal Reserve would only increase interest rates by 25 basis points. The looming economic downturn is a fact, therefore over the long run, it is likely to have more of an impact than anything else.


However, the technical barrier has persisted, and traders have responded accordingly. This market is likely to look for the 50-Day EMA, which is close to the 3910 level, if we break down below the daily range. That is highly likely in this situation since volatility is increasing. The 4000 level and the downtrend line just above it will be the next significant obstacles if we do rise from here.


The S&P 500 may very well surge into the 4200 mark if we were to break above that downtrend line.


Although I don't necessarily support it, I can see how it may be done. If everything remained the same, I believe the 50-Day EMA being retested is likely far more probable. The bottom will almost certainly fall out if we break through that level, enabling the S&P 500 E-mini contract to once again dip down to the 3800 level. Giving up on it would obviously be extremely bad and possibly result in a lot of liquidation since that region has had enormous support.