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February 9th - Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that she would communicate with financial markets on Monday, if necessary, to calm market sentiment as soon as possible. However, she also warned of the possibility of intervention in the yens exchange rate at any time. Katayama revealed that she maintains close contact with US Treasury Secretary Bessenter, sharing the responsibility of maintaining the stability of the dollar-yen exchange rate. She explained that Japan and the US have signed a memorandum of understanding stipulating that decisive measures can be taken against rapid fluctuations deviating from fundamentals, which certainly includes intervention. She reiterated that she is closely monitoring financial markets, while emphasizing her commitment to responsible fiscal policy and stressing the governments strong focus on fiscal sustainability and its desire to maintain it.February 9th - According to NHK, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Restoration Party won a majority of seats in the House of Representatives election held on the 8th.Musk: Teslas electric semi-truck will begin mass production this year.February 9th - Goldman Sachs trading arm stated that after a rebound in U.S. stocks last Friday, almost recovering the weeks brutal losses, this week will face further selling pressure from trend-following algorithmic funds. The S&P 500 has broken through a short-term trigger point, prompting commodity trading advisors (CTAs) to sell stocks. Goldman Sachs expects these systematic strategies, which track stock market movements rather than fundamental factors, to remain net sellers in the coming week, regardless of market direction. Goldman Sachs stated that if the stock market falls again, it could trigger approximately $33 billion in selling this week. If market pressure persists and the S&P 500 falls below 6707 points, there could be as much as $80 billion in systemic selling over the next month. In a stable market environment, CTAs are expected to sell approximately $15.4 billion in U.S. stocks this week, and even if the stock market rises, these funds are still expected to sell approximately $8.7 billion.February 9th - Goldman Sachs trading arm stated that after a rebound in U.S. stocks last Friday, almost recovering the weeks brutal losses, this week will face further selling pressure from trend-following algorithmic funds. The S&P 500 has broken through a short-term trigger point, prompting commodity trading advisors (CTAs) to sell stocks. Goldman Sachs expects these systematic strategies, which track stock market movements rather than fundamental factors, to remain net sellers in the coming week, regardless of market direction. Goldman Sachs stated that if the stock market falls again, it could trigger approximately $33 billion in selling this week. If market pressure persists and the S&P 500 falls below 6707 points, there could be as much as $80 billion in systemic selling over the next month. In a stable market environment, CTAs are expected to sell approximately $15.4 billion in U.S. stocks this week, and even if the stock market rises, these funds are still expected to sell approximately $8.7 billion.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 E-mini Contract Sits on 50-Day EMA

Alice Wang

Dec 13, 2022 17:28


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Since a few days ago, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been trading on the 50-Day, and Monday was no exception. We are currently squeezed between the 200-Day EMA above and the 50-Day EMA below. You can see from this chart that the 50-Day EMA might enter the picture and provide some support, but we still need to get through a few big announcements in the coming days.


The Consumer Price Index, which will be released on Tuesday, will be the first one. Inflation is monitored closely by the central bankers in the United States, making it a highly significant indicator. Following that, we have the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, which will undoubtedly have an impact of its own. The ECB must now be taken into consideration, even if it will have less of an impact than the Fed at this stage.


We must now begin to worry about liquidity at this stage. Fund managers may use some window dressing at the end of the year to attempt to convince all of their customers that they possess the proper assets, but there will also be buyback blackouts, which will prevent businesses from repurchasing their own stock. In that case, a significant stock buyer may have just left.


Because of this, I believe that the possibility of a move lower than higher is greater than it is for a move higher. However, as of right now, I don't believe that there will be a significant move between now and New Year's Day.

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