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On August 26, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged governments to address rising fiscal risks, stating that "all countries need to address their own fiscal problems and develop and publish credible plans to ensure debt and deficits are on a sustainable track." She also called on central banks to "focus heavily on their price stability mandate." Georgieva noted that the global economy is under pressure from high inflation and trade tensions, but growth from AI investment has partially offset the shocks. However, rising bond yields and stalled inflation indicate a high degree of uncertainty about the economic outlook. She stated that the energy shock triggered by the Iran war is not yet over, and the global economy is facing a tug-of-war between "negative supply shocks from the Middle East" and "positive demand shocks from AI." She also warned that energy supply, El Niño weather, and the impact of AI on financial stability remain major risks.British Chancellor of the Exchequer: Supports US efforts to promote a diplomatic solution and welcomes increased pressure on Iran through means such as "economic isolation".British Chancellor of the Exchequer: (Regarding sanctions against Iran) He called on Iran to cease its disruptive activities in the region, including the Strait of Hormuz.On August 26th, the minutes of the Federal Reserves July discount rate meeting revealed that 10 regional Federal Reserve banks requested that the current main lending rate be maintained, while 2 regional Federal Reserve banks requested an interest rate hike. The Cleveland Fed and the Minneapolis Fed had voted to raise the main lending rate from 3.75% to 4%. The minutes show that the Federal Reserve Board ultimately approved maintaining the main lending rate at 3.75% and continuing to use the formula for calculating subprime and seasonal lending rates. Several Fed directors stated that the overall economic situation was stable, but some directors mentioned that inflation remained high, consumers were increasingly focused on prices, and fuel prices and surcharges were driven up by global events.According to Nikkei: Japan is seeking to fund the rare earth mining industry with long-term technological support.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 E-mini Contract Pulls Back

Skylar Shaw

Jan 31, 2023 16:57


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

As we continue to wait for the Federal Reserve statement on Wednesday and many people speculate as to what Jerome Powell would say, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has slightly declined during the trading session on Monday. The truth is that as everyone gets ready for the possible volatility late Wednesday, we are going to see a lot of loud activity, but short-term back-and-forth. Since there is so much inflation in the world, even if it is declining, it is still much more than the Federal Reserve's aim, many people are beginning to believe that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain monetary policy looser than expected. There is even speculation that they may decide to increase their aim and accept inflation of 3%. This is absurd.


What will happen in the market in response to the upcoming news is the question at hand. I don't believe we will definitely break down below the 200-Day EMA between now and then, but I do think that if we do have a move ahead of time, it will probably be more bearish than positive. It is not only a very significant technical indication, but it is also close to the psychologically significant 4000 level. In the long run, a rise to the 4200 level is possible if we were to surpass the peak of the shooting star from the Friday session. In the end, this condition tends to increase volatility.