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Ukrainian Prime Minister: Ukraine has received 5.9 billion euros from the European Union.On November 13th, the Financial Times published an article stating that social financing has maintained rapid growth, with monetary and fiscal policies working in tandem. However, its also important to recognize that the rapid and frequent issuance of government bonds has a certain short-term substitution effect on loans. "The current economic operation faces the challenge of insufficient demand. By increasing the scale of government bond issuance, we can support the implementation of major projects and national strategies, helping to expand demand and support the economy. At the same time, many government bonds are used to replace debt of financing platforms and clear overdue payments to enterprises. In effect, this is a process of the government appropriately increasing leverage to help enterprises and households stabilize their leverage, helping business entities alleviate financial pressure and reduce debt burdens, laying the foundation for the medium- and long-term sustainable development of the economy," an industry insider explained.On November 13th, the IEA monthly report indicated that its outlook for Russian crude oil production faces "considerable downside risks," but it did not estimate the specific impact until more details regarding implementation become available. The IEA stated that recent US sanctions against Russian oil companies "could have the most profound impact on the global oil market to date. While Russian crude oil flows are currently largely unchanged, the disintegration of the global value chains of Rosneft and Lukoil poses risks far beyond Russian borders." Finally, the IEA maintained its estimate of Russian average daily crude oil production of 9.3 million barrels this quarter and next year. It stated that it will maintain this outlook until more details regarding implementation and potential circumvention methods become clearer.November 13th - According to the Wall Street Journal, AMD has been a competitor to Nvidia since the start of the artificial intelligence boom. If the companys revenue and market share forecasts remain unchanged, its influence will significantly increase in the coming years. AMD stated that it expects its AI chip sales to grow at an annual rate of 80% over the next few years and estimates that by 2030, it should hold a double-digit market share in a field currently almost monopolized by Nvidia. AMD estimates that the entire AI chip market will be worth $1 trillion over the next five years, corresponding to the companys sales exceeding $100 billion. The company also hinted that gross margins will remain at a relatively healthy level, despite its investment in developing new chips and complex computing systems. Many investors and AI chip customers are hoping for a true competitor to Nvidia, and AMD certainly believes it is brewing such a thing.November 13th - The pound faces further downside risk following weaker-than-expected UK economic growth data released on Thursday, with the UK economy growing by only 0.1% in the third quarter, below economists forecasts of 0.2%. Monex Europe analyst Francesco Pesole stated that a potential rate cut in December could impact the pound, as the market has not yet fully priced in this expectation. He believes these data complicate Chancellor Reeves work ahead of the November 26th budget address, where she will strive for fiscally prudent measures without unduly harming economic growth or pushing up inflation.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Directional Fate Tied to CPI After NFP Selloff

Steven Zhao

Oct 10, 2022 14:28

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Major indices fell quickly after an in-line US employment data as the print increased the likelihood of a 75-basis point rate rise to almost 100%, per Fed funds futures and overnight index swaps (OIS). Fed funds futures had an 87.8% likelihood of a 75-bps raise at the November 02 FOMC before the NFP. After the story hit the wires, those chances rose to 96%.


The policy-sensitive 2-year yield increased by around eight basis points during the New York trade day as Treasury rates increased throughout the curve. Given that rates are at multi-year highs, which typically drive investment into the "virtually risk-free" securities, the lack of demand for government bonds is raising concerns for some investors.


Due to a holiday on Monday, the US bond market will be closed, which might increase market volatility. The auction program for later next week includes sales of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds totaling around $90 billion. Even if a modest desire for debt is predicted, these auctions might provide valuable knowledge. This might result in higher yields and more pressure on stocks.


However, the consumer price index (CPI) for the United States is the market event with the largest visibility for both equities dealers and the international financial system. All eyes are on Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, and what they have planned for the future. Analysts predict that core inflation, which includes food and energy, will increase from the previous year to 6.5%. It's easy to understand the CPI inflation figures in this case: A print that is higher than anticipated would probably cause the market to decline even more, supporting the Fed's stance against inflation, while a print that is lower than anticipated will probably have the opposite impact.

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