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1. Indias Ministry of Food stated in a press release, "The government has observed that in some cases, sugar sold by sugar mills at the beginning of the month is only picked up or shipped by buyers at the end of the month. This practice exacerbates artificial shortages in the market. To address this issue and ensure timely access to the market, the government has decided to implement a bi-weekly sugar allocation system starting in September, replacing the existing monthly quota system." 2. On August 28, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a ministerial meeting, emphasizing the need to focus on autumn grain field management and agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief, striving for a bumper harvest and ensuring the achievement of the target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin (600 million tons) of grain output. The meeting also stressed the importance of strengthening and improving macro-control of the agricultural industry, focusing on stabilizing the production of livestock products such as hogs, and promoting reasonable prices. 3. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported selling 182,000 tons of soybeans to China, 226,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, 100,000 tons of soybean meal to Germany, and 100,000 tons of soybean meal to the Netherlands, all for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 4. Fed Chair Hamack: The Fed should raise interest rates; waiting will only bring pain. He does not believe financial conditions are tight. 5. Fed Chair Warsh warned that inflation has not shown a meaningful slowdown and said policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction, otherwise the central bank "has more work to do." Warsh reiterated that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target. He stated that this is a clear and fixed target. Warsh also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the Feds "primary tool" for fulfilling its mandate. 6. US short-term interest rate futures fell, with market pricing indicating increased bets on a Fed rate hike following Warshs remarks. 7. Fed Chair Warsh stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer were better than expected, they did not convince me that the underlying trend of inflation has shown a meaningful improvement." "Market prices reflect the markets belief that we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the markets judgment is correct." Warsh then stated that with inflation above 2%, the Feds "primary focus right now should be prices." 8. According to the Associated Press, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said on Friday that inflation remains too high. He hinted that the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the coming months to reduce inflation. This statement more clearly reflects his view on the economic situation than his previous remarks.On August 28th, George Catrambo, Head of Fixed Income for the Americas at DWS, said during a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, "Whatever you call it, this is exactly the forward guidance the market was expecting at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting." "Im listening to a Fed chairman who is likely to tighten monetary policy. Hes trying to maintain a balance in his speech, but the Fed will most likely raise rates."On August 28th, Omar Sharif, an analyst at inflation research firm Inflation Insights, stated, "Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh gave the market what it wanted: a more detailed explanation of his views on current economic data, especially inflation data. Of course, he didnt reveal any potential future policy actions. In that sense, it seems to be a win-win situation for both Warsh and the market."On August 28th, Natixis analyst Hodge believed that Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs speech did indeed provide some guidance on the "response function": Warsh also proposed a standard for measuring inflation progress. Policymakers must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the 2% target "at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace."Colombian Vice President: We need to promote the development of the oil, gas and mining industries.

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – S&P 500 Breakthrough Resistance Barrier

Alice Wang

Nov 14, 2022 16:46

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Weekly Technical Analysis for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract has gained quite a bit this week as speculation about the Federal Reserve relaxing monetary policy has increased. Despite the fact that the US inflation rate came in at 7.7% year-over-year, it is difficult to foresee a scenario in which the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy. In light of this, we now find ourselves in a scenario where the market has seized the initiative.


Before it's all said and done, I predict there will be a lot of dissatisfied traders. I view this situation through the lens of a "bear market rally."


Remember that some of the most volatile sessions take place in the middle of a bear market because traders were waiting for an excuse to go long and found it over the trading week. Whether or not that holds true moving forward, that will be entirely different. In the end, it's feasible that we could swiftly return to the 3700 level if we were to reverse course and break down below the 3950 level. On the other hand, we might have a potential figure breakout if we were to break above the 4050 level, which is where the 50-Week EMA is now located.


In the end, it's still uncertain whether this market has just produced a small "double bottom."


Remembering that we have been in a decline channel for some time is also important. Ultimately, I believe that there will be a great deal of volatility.