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According to the Wall Street Journal: Ford Motor (FN) further cuts 1,000 jobs in Germany due to continued weak demand for electric vehicles.The European Parliaments head of metals will visit Kyiv, MEPs said.September 17th news: On September 17th local time, Krasnodar Airport in southern Russia received the first flight since its suspension of operations. This is also the first time the airport has resumed formal operations since its closure since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.

On the back of broad-based USD strength, USD/CAD approaches the mid-1.3700s, approaching a two-week high

Alina Haynes

Nov 03, 2022 18:04

 截屏2022-11-03 下午5.21.49.png

 

On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair recovers from an early decline to the 1.3680 zone and enters positive territory for the sixth consecutive trading day. During the beginning of the European session, spot prices achieve a one-and-a-half-week high towards the middle of the 1,3700s and appear poised to extend the recent rally from levels below 1,3500.

 

The underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, bolstered by the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance, appears to be a key factor sustaining the USD/CAD exchange rate. For the fourth consecutive time, the US central bank increased interest rates by 75 basis points to combat persistently rising inflation. In addition, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, dashed expectations for a dovish reversal by suggesting that interest rates would need to rise more than anticipated.

 

A further increase in US Treasury bond yields increases the prospect of further Fed policy tightening and continues to act as a tailwind for the currency. In addition, a lessening of risk sentiment provides additional support for the safe-haven dollar. A modest decrease in crude oil prices from their three-week high is anticipated to weaken the Canadian dollar, which is related to commodities prices. This, in turn, increases the chance of a further USD/CAD rise in the near future.

 

Even from a technical standpoint, the overnight spike following the FOMC meeting has pushed spot prices over the barrier zone of 1.3670-1.3685. A subsequent strength and acceptance over the 1.3700 level reinforces the bullish bias and favors bullish traders, indicating that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. In conjunction with US bond yields, the US ISM Services PMI will propel the US usd and add momentum to the primary currency.


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