EUR/USD 1.17157
0.349%
Gold 4627.83
1.857%
Oil 101.230
-3.922%
USD/JPY 156.303
-2.579%
GBP/USD 1.35302
0.406%
GBP/JPY 211.485
-2.180%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On April 30th, Madison Faller, Global Investment Strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, stated that the Bank of Englands decision to hold rates steady today was not surprising, but investors should not confuse consensus with confidence. The market may have misinterpreted the balance of risks. Risk is two-way. However, the speed and volatility of the repricing from rate cuts to rate hikes suggest that investors are overestimating the inflationary risks from the energy shock while underestimating the downside risks to growth. We believe that recent movements in UK government bonds (especially in the short to mid-yield curve) and the pound have been somewhat overdone. We believe investors should position themselves now, rather than chasing a hawkish narrative.On April 30th, David Rees, Global Head of Economics at Schroders, stated that the Bank of Englands decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects its hawkish stance. With overall inflation at 3.3%, wage growth has only gradually slowed, and services inflation remains sticky. The risk lies in the possibility that this shock could become more persistent. A second wave of risk exists later this year if energy shortages translate into food price pressures. Rising fuel and shipping costs, coupled with renewed pressure on inputs such as fertilizers, could lagged behind in pushing up grocery inflation. The risk of persistently high inflation, coupled with speculation about political upheaval following local elections, has pushed UK gilt yields to near 20-year highs. Even so, the threshold for raising interest rates remains high. Given some slack in the labor market and the potential for weaker growth if supply disruptions persist, we doubt the Bank of England will tighten policy unless economic activity remains strong enough to absorb the impact of a rate hike.On April 30th, the Bank of England voted 8-1 to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Chief Economist Peale was the only member to vote against it, but other members hinted they might join him at future meetings. Due to the high unpredictability of the Iranian conflict, the Bank of England abandoned its core inflation forecast, instead setting three scenarios based on different paths of energy prices and the effects of a second round of inflation. All three scenarios indicated a need for an interest rate hike: the most pessimistic scenario predicted oil prices would remain around $130 per barrel—a level already reached before Thursdays rate decision. Under this scenario, models used to illustrate the potential impact of monetary policy pointed to a larger rate hike, between 66 and 151 basis points.Bank of England Governor Bailey will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.Daxin Securities: Raises its target price for Amazon (AMZN.O) from $285 to $310.

Oil prices steady after precipitous declines due to weak U.S. demand

Haiden Holmes

Jul 22, 2022 11:27

82.png


Oil prices stayed almost unchanged in early trading on Friday, after a loss of around 3 percent in the previous session due to deteriorating demand in the United States, the biggest oil consumer in the world, and a rise in output from Libya.


Brent oil prices rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $104.03 per barrel at 00:41 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were constant at $96.35 per barrel.


WTI has been hammered over the last two days as a result of the publication of data suggesting that U.S. gasoline consumption during the height of the summer driving season decreased by around 8% from the previous year due to record pump prices.


"At 8.52 million barrels per day, seasonal demand is at its lowest level since 2008," experts at ANZ Research said in a study.


The decrease in WTI has positioned the contract for a loss of 1.3% this week, its third consecutive weekly loss.


Brent was bolstered by signs of healthy demand in Asia, putting it on course for its first weekly gain in six weeks.


Despite increasing prices, gasoline and distillate fuel demand in India hit all-time highs in June, with refined product consumption 18 percent higher than a year earlier and Indian refineries operating at their busiest levels ever.


An analyst at RBC, Michael Tran, said in a note, "This signals much more than a solid return from COVID-affected years."


Brent's gains were limited this week by the return of production at important Libyan oil fields.


Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates more than expected on Thursday in an effort to curb inflation, with ECB President Christine Lagarde warning that inflation risks had increased due to the likelihood that the Ukraine conflict will continue for an extended period of time and that energy prices will remain elevated for an extended period of time.


"Is the horizon cloudy? Clearly it is, "Lagarde said.


She said that the baseline assumption of the central bank is that neither this year nor next would experience a recession.

Suggestion