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With a September Federal Reserve rate cut all but certain, options traders are widely betting on a stable stock market ahead of Thursdays CPI data. However, this bet could be risky if the data shows rising inflation. The markets rationale for a rate cut is straightforward: US job growth is stagnant and the economy needs stimulus. Fridays weak jobs data reinforced this expectation, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. The markets reaction has been muted: US stocks fell slightly on Friday, and the fear gauge edged up slightly, but remains well below the critical 20 level, where it has mostly remained since June. Looking ahead, options traders are betting on a roughly 0.7% two-way move in the S&P 500 following Thursdays CPI release, below the 1% average realized move over the past year. However, this trade ignores a key risk: what if inflation figures significantly exceed expectations? "Its a very delicate balance right now," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management. "Any data thats very positive or very negative could change the market outlook."On September 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant stated that the United States and Europe are discussing a new round of sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia, hoping that the "collapse" of the Russian economy will prompt Putin to engage in peace talks with Ukraine. "We are ready to increase pressure on Russia, but we need the cooperation of our European partners," Bessant said. He also stated that President Trump and Vice President Cyril Vance spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, and that von der Leyen subsequently discussed sanctions with Bessant.Israel Airports Authority: The first flight from Ramon Airport to Tel Aviv will take off soon.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+s production increase plan is beneficial to the Russian economy.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+ will make monthly production decisions based on market conditions.

Oil prices fall owing to fears of a recession, while China's imports gradually increase

Skylar Williams

Aug 08, 2022 11:23

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Oil prices remained at multi-month lows on Monday, as fears of a recession reduced demand expectations and data suggested a steady increase in China's oil imports last month.


At 00:39 GMT, Brent oil futures slipped 74 cents, or 0.8 percent , to $94.18 a barrel. Last week, front-month prices reached their lowest level since February, plummeting 13.7% and recording their largest weekly decrease since April 2020.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was priced at $88.34 a barrel, a decrease of 67 cents, or 0.8%, extending losses from the previous week's 9.7% drop.


China, the world's top oil importer, imported 8.79 million barrels per day (bpd) of petroleum in July, up from a four-year low in June but still 9.5% lower than a year earlier, according to customs data.


In reaction to high oil prices and low local profits, Chinese refiners cut their stockpiles even as the nation's exports climbed overall.


ANZ lowered its oil demand forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by 300,000 bpd and 500,000 bpd, respectively, due to a decrease in U.S. gasoline consumption and China's zero-COVID strategy, which delayed recovery.


The bank forecasts that oil consumption would climb by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2022 and settle at 99.7 million barrels per day, just short of pre-pandemic highs.


Despite the impending embargo from the European Union, which will go into force on December 5, exports of crude and oil products from Russia continued.


Last week, energy companies in the United States cut the number of oil rigs by the greatest amount since September, marking the first reduction in 10 weeks.


Sunday, the U.S. Senate backed a $430 billion plan to address climate change and other issues, providing a boost to the renewable energy industry.