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Real-time News
Microsoft (MSFT.O) reported revenue of $82.9 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2026, compared to $70.066 billion in the same period last year and market expectations of $81.36 billion.On April 30th, it was reported that Jerome Powells decision to remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors after his term as Chairman ended is uncommon, but not unprecedented. Most modern Fed Chairs leave the Board after their terms expire. Powells predecessor, Janet Yellen, left the Fed in 2018 to join the Brookings Institution, and was subsequently appointed as Bidens Treasury Secretary in 2020. The only exception is Eccles, who served as Fed Chair from 1934 to 1948, and remained on the Board for another three years. Eccles played a key role in the clash with Truman over the extent of the White Houses power in setting interest rates, a confrontation that ultimately ensured the Feds modern independence. Powell has not shied away from addressing the political pressures facing the Fed during his tenure. He made it clear on Wednesday that his decision to remain was not due to any politicians verbal attacks, but rather a result of legal action against the Fed.April 30th - According to CMEs "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by June is 98.6% (98.8% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.4% (1.2% before the decision). The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by July is 96.5% (94.6% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.4% (5.4% before the decision). The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 96.1% (92.7% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.8% (7.2% before the decision).On April 30th, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he would continue serving as a governor after his term as chairman ends in order to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. "I will stay as long as I feel it is appropriate to remain," Powell said at a press conference. He added, "I dont want to be some kind of high-profile dissident or anything like that."FOMC Statement: 1. Statement Overview: The benchmark interest rate was maintained at 3.50%-3.75%; Milan voted for a 25 basis point cut; Hammark, Kashkari, and Logan voted against the "dodging hints" in the policy statement, marking the largest number of dissenting votes at a meeting since October 1992. 2. Interest Rate Outlook: The potentially accommodative language was retained, indicating that the latest information will be carefully assessed when considering the magnitude and timing of "further" adjustments to interest rates. 3. Inflation Outlook: Inflation was described as "high," compared to "slightly high" in the previous statement, and the impact of global energy prices was noted. 4. Economic Outlook: Developments in the Middle East have increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. Job growth has been generally weak. Powells Press Conference: 1. Interest Rate Outlook: In a good position; the number of officials supporting a shift to a neutral bias has increased; a change in the current accommodative stance may be considered at the next meeting; no one is currently calling for a rate hike, and those who disagree with the accommodative stance are not inclined to raise rates; if a rate hike or cut is needed, signals will be sent and action taken; energy and tariff issues need to be observed before considering a rate cut. 2. Inflation Outlook: Inflation is high, with recent inflation expectations rising, partly reflecting rising energy prices; the surge in energy inflation has not yet peaked; the prospect of rising core inflation is realistic; core PCE inflation is projected at 3.2%; tariff inflation should slow this year. 3. Economic Outlook: Economic activity is expanding robustly, but events in the Middle East have increased uncertainty, making the economic outlook highly uncertain. Labor demand has weakened, while showing increasing signs of stabilization. 4. Retirement: After stepping down as chairman, he will continue to serve as a governor in a low-profile capacity for an undetermined period, and will leave the Fed at an appropriate time; he had intended to retire, but government actions left him with no other choice; he will not become a shadow chairman. 5. Market Reaction: From the release of the statement to the end of Powells speech, most asset classes saw minimal movement, with gold fluctuating by $35, 2-year Treasury bonds rising by 2 basis points, and interest rate futures pricing in a full-year rate cut at around 1.5 basis points.
