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The Federal Reserve accepted a total of $105.993 billion from 49 counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations.On January 1st, JPMorgan Chase stated that the US labor market has cooled after a year of economic and financial market turmoil, and is expected to show a slowdown at the start of 2026 followed by a gradual improvement in the second half. A forecast report released earlier this month by the bank indicated that the weakening momentum in job growth in 2025 can be attributed to business uncertainty caused by tariffs and trade policies. Economist Michael Ferroli stated, "Therefore, businesses continue to face difficulties in both long-term and short-term planning, with both layoff and hiring rates remaining low. When businesses lack confidence in the situation over the next six months, they tend to be cautious about large-scale increases or decreases in staff." Furthermore, the Trump administrations immigration controls and deportations have been more stringent than expected. The reduced labor supply, coupled with a relatively stable labor force participation rate, means that the monthly job creation needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate may plummet from 50,000 to just 15,000. Although the rate of job growth is slowing, the unemployment rate is expected to continue to rise gradually.U.S. Special Envoy Witkov: Focus on how to advance discussions on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including strengthening security guarantees and developing a de-escalation mechanism.According to sources and shipping data, Venezuela’s remaining fuel stocks are nearing capacity limits as exports have almost come to a standstill.EIA Natural Gas Report: For the week ending December 26, total U.S. natural gas inventories were 3.375 trillion cubic feet, down 38 billion cubic feet from the previous week and down 55 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, while 58 billion cubic feet higher than the 5-year average, an increase of 1.7%.

Oil Prices Surge After Big Weekly Declines; Fed Signals Are Sought

Charlie Brooks

Feb 20, 2023 14:36

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Oil prices increased on Monday, recouping a portion of recent losses, despite continued pressure from concerns over increasing interest rates and declining demand ahead of additional Federal Reserve monetary policy guidance.


Fears of further policy tightening increased as a result of higher-than-anticipated U.S. inflation and hawkish remarks from some Federal Reserve officials. Crude oil prices were suffering severe losses from the previous week.


This year, rising interest rates are anticipated to stifle economic activity, which might lead to a decline in oil demand.


Around 21:44 ET, Brent oil futures increased 0.3% to $83.41 per barrel, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased 0.5% to $76.90 per barrel (02:44 GMT). Last week, both contracts declined by almost 4 percent.


This week's main focus is on the Fed's February meeting minutes, due on Wednesday. Throughout the meeting, the central bank maintained its hawkish language, and the minutes are likely to reflect this.


This week, a number of Fed speakers and a reading on the personal consumption expenditures index - the Fed's favored inflation indicator - are likely to give additional light on monetary policy.


Increasing indications of a U.S. supply surplus depressed oil prices, as the nation recorded significantly larger-than-anticipated inventory increases the previous week. Meanwhile, the federal government announced the sale of 26 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.


From the beginning of the year, crude oil prices have struggled amid mounting concerns about a global economic slowdown as the impact of significant interest rate hikes begin to be seen.


Yet, oil bulls continue to anticipate a rebound in China as the country emerges from three years of COVID restrictions. According to the OPEC and IEA, an economic recovery in the world's largest oil importer is expected to drive petroleum consumption to historic highs this year.


The People's Bank of China kept its key mortgage interest rates at historical lows on Monday, as the government strives to bolster economic development with additional stimulus measures.


But, China's economic statistics has thus far depicted an average image of growth.


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