EUR/USD
1.14940
0.125%
Gold
3386.91
-0.047%
Oil
72.939
-1.022%
USD/JPY
144.774
-0.352%
GBP/USD
1.34383
0.080%
GBP/JPY
194.555
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Real-time News
The dot plot suggests only one rate cut this year 1. Morningstar Capital: The reduction in rate cut expectations would not be surprising, and the June dot plot may show that the Fed will only cut interest rates once this year. 2. Wells Fargo: The Fed may lower its rate cut expectations for this year in its latest economic forecast, suggesting that it will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year. 3. Deutsche Bank: If the Fed raises its inflation expectations, the number of rate cuts this year will be reduced from two in the March forecast to one. 4. Danske Bank: Taking into account factors such as short-term inflation upside risks, it is expected that the Feds median forecast for interest rates in 2025-2026 will move up 25 basis points simultaneously, to 4.1% and 3.6% respectively. 5. Bank of America: The Fed will move up its median forecast for this years interest rate by 25 basis points and shift this part of the rate cut to next year. A more hawkish dot plot may postpone the rate cut to 2027 or remove it directly from the policy path. Other Views 1. Societe Generale: In the latest economic forecast, GDP forecast is expected to decline, unemployment rate will be slightly raised, inflation will be raised, and there is a risk of an upward revision to the long-term median interest rate forecast. 2. Former Powell adviser: The current Fed dot plot shows that the probability of zero, one or two rate cuts this year is equal. The Fed will only act when the data supports it, and it will never act rashly before that. 3. Morgan Stanley: There may not be a major shift in the dot plot, and the Fed will still expect to cut interest rates twice this year. Since the last economic forecast update, there has been a huge shift in US policy, and the Fed seems to still intend to wait and see.On June 19, Simon Dangoor, a strategist at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said at a media roundtable that the Federal Reserve may maintain a "wait-and-see" mode when announcing its interest rate decision this time. This makes sense as the market moves higher and the data holds up well. He said that macroeconomic data to be released in the next few months is likely to be the main driver of future interest rate decisions.Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Pulte: Powell should cut interest rates immediately or resign.Fitch: We estimate that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will save approximately $150 billion per year through spending cuts.Fitch: Despite some short-term revenue growth, the U.S. fiscal outlook remains challenging.
