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On April 28th, John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that this weeks Federal Reserve meeting will provide clues as to which officials are inclined to react to energy-related inflation and which view it as a temporary factor. He noted that the meetings dovish tone, with no dot plot and a high probability of no policy action, "paves the way for a more intense meeting in June," where Kevin Warsh is likely to chair. Tyner added that a new dot plot will be released in June, and more time will be available to clarify the situation in the Middle East and its impact on the economy and inflation.On April 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting emphasized the need to make full and effective use of macroeconomic policies. It stressed the importance of continuously optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures and ensuring basic public services at the grassroots level. The meeting also emphasized enhancing the forward-looking, flexible, and targeted nature of monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity. Maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level was also stressed. Finally, the meeting called for a thorough assessment of the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation.On April 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting emphasized the need to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system and maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing. It stressed the importance of deepening the construction of a unified national market and thoroughly addressing "involutionary" competition. The meeting also called for the comprehensive implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan, developing new forms of intelligent economy, and improving the governance of artificial intelligence. Furthermore, it stressed the need to further deepen the reform of state-owned assets and enterprises. Finally, it emphasized the need to systematically address external shocks and challenges, improve the level of energy and resource security, and respond to various uncertainties with the certainty of high-quality development.April 28 – The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting pointed out the need to further tap the potential of domestic demand. This includes expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services to promote consumption upgrading; further implementing the action plan to expand and improve the service industry; strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new power grids, computing networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipe networks, and logistics networks; and promoting the commencement of major projects when conditions are ripe.On April 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting pointed out the need to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market and steadily promote urban renewal. Local government debt risks should be resolved in an orderly manner, and efforts should be focused on resolving the issue of overdue payments to enterprises. Reforms of small and medium-sized financial institutions should be promoted to stabilize and enhance confidence in the capital market.

OPEC Monthly Report: Maintain global economic expectations and raise crude oil demand expectations

LEO

Oct 26, 2021 11:03

GMT+8 On Wednesday (October 13), OPEC published a monthly report showing that despite the rise in oil prices, OPEC is still cautious about oil demand. The 2021 global oil demand growth forecast is lowered by 160,000 barrels/day to 5.8 million barrels/day, and the demand for OPEC crude oil in 2021 is expected to be raised by 100,000 barrels/day to 27.8 million barrels/day.



The OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast in 2022 unchanged at 4.2 million barrels per day, with an average of 100.8 million barrels per day, and lowers the forecast of oil demand growth in 2021 from the previous 5.96 million barrels per day to 5.82 million barrels per day. /Day, rising natural gas and thermal coal prices will encourage more energy consumption to shift from natural gas to oil. Second-hand data shows that Iran’s September crude oil production increased by 22,000 barrels per day to 2.503 million barrels per day.

The demand for OPEC crude oil in 2021 will be raised by 100,000 barrels/day to 27.8 million barrels/day, and the demand for OPEC crude oil in 2022 will be increased by 100,000 barrels/day to 28.8 million barrels/day.

Second-hand data show that Saudi Arabia’s September crude oil production increased by 139,000 barrels/day to 9.678 million barrels/day, the UAE’s September crude oil production increased by 14,000 barrels/day to 2.789 million barrels/day, and Libya’s September crude oil production decreased by 5 thousand barrels/day. Barrels/day to 1.148 million barrels/day, China’s net imports of petroleum products increased by 1.28 million barrels/day to 11.19 million barrels/day compared with the previous round of statistics.

U.S. net imports of petroleum products increased by 1.01 million barrels per day to 1.53 million barrels per day from the previous round of statistics. India’s net imports of petroleum products increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 4.02 million barrels per day from the previous round of statistics. China's net imports of petroleum products increased by 1.28 million barrels per day to 11.19 million barrels per day from the previous round of statistics.

Maintaining the global economic growth forecasts for 2022 and 2021 at 4.2% and 5.6%, respectively, the global oil demand in 2021 is expected to be 96.6 million barrels per day. (Last month expected to be 96.7 million barrels/day), the 2021 non-OPEC oil supply forecast was lowered by 210,000 barrels/day.