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November 10th - Some Wall Street strategists believe that strong corporate earnings will drive a U.S. stock market rally in 2026, and the risks surrounding the uncertain interest rate outlook will prove to be temporary. Morgan Stanleys Michael Wilson stated that there are "clear signs" of an ongoing earnings recovery, and U.S. companies are enjoying better pricing power. He also noted that earnings expectation revisions have bottomed out. In a report, Wilson wrote, "While Federal Reserve guidance and the impact of the government shutdown have put pressure on recent stock price movements, these are merely temporary headwinds before a solid 2026 driven by earnings growth." A Citi index shows that since mid-October, more analysts have raised valuations than lowered them. Market focus now shifts to Nvidias earnings report next week for clues about artificial intelligence trends.Jefferies: Raises its target price for Arm (ARM.O) from $173 to $205.On November 10th, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a report that European luxury goods groups showed some positive signs in the third quarter, with a sequential improvement compared to the previous quarter. Analysts stated that investors welcomed these better results, and share prices performed strongly throughout the earnings season. However, they added that the market lacks a clear turning point because Asian demand remains volatile and questions persist about US spending during the peak sales season. The analysts believe, "We think luxury goods stocks need to see a real upgrade, which really requires better underlying improvement to support this positive performance." Furthermore, they noted that market polarization remains high, putting brands with strong momentum in a more advantageous position overall.Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian troops have captured the Nove and Hnativka regions in eastern Ukraine.With the U.S. government shutdown expected to end, some airline stocks rose in pre-market trading. American Airlines (AAL.O) rose 1.32%, United Airlines (UAL.O) rose 1.94%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) rose 1.5%.

Nine Reasons Why the S&P500 Should Continue to Rally

Skylar Shaw

Apr 07, 2022 11:11


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S&P 500 Technical Comparison With 2021 Rally

Although it is frequently said that "past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes," in this update, I will examine nine distinct TA items to determine whether, as Mark Twain famously remarked, "History Doesn't Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes." Take a look at Figure 1.


Figure 1: Daily candlestick charts of the S&P500 using a variety of technical indicators and moving averages.


The comparison to November 2021 shows that increased costs are on the way.


I compare the present rally to the one that began in October 2021 and lasted until December 2021, since the SPX has already risen about 500 points from the February 24 low. In the Tas, I've numbered the similarities between then and today. This approach enables objective evaluation of the price chart:


  1. The Bollinger Bands expanded initially (black arrows), then the lower band bottomed, followed by a move back up, much like the index.

  2. The index is above its 200-day simple moving average (in red) (SMA)

  3. The Ichimoku Cloud is above the index.

  4. The index is above the 50-day SMA.

  5. The index is above the 20-day SMA.

  6. The index dropped slightly before rallying.

  7. The RSI5 dropped quickly, but did not go below 50.

  8. The MACD fell slightly, and the histogram crested, but it was still solidly going upward.

  9. MFI14 (Money Flow Indicator) remained around 70.

US Stock Market Technical Forecast

Since the notorious February 24 bottom, the S&P500 has rebounded almost 500 points. There are (at least) nine parallels between the most recent surge (October-December 2021) and presently, according to an impartial examination. The surge paused for a short while before adding 4.5 percent, followed by a more dramatic reversal (-5.3 percent).


The index experienced a brief pause in the middle of last week and has since resumed its upward trend. Similar to the surge in October and December of 21. Based on these nine comparable TA settings, the current rally has a good chance of reaching new uptrend highs (think SPX4750+/-50) before a more major pullback (think SPX4350+/-50).


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