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July 11th - According to the official WeChat account of Hangzhou Metro, due to the impact of Typhoon Bavi (No. 9), Hangzhou City has activated a Level I typhoon emergency response. Starting at 6:00 AM on July 12th, the entire metro network will be suspended, with the resumption time to be announced separately.On July 11, Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Eni, the Italian state-owned holding group, stated that if the Middle East conflict continues, the global oil market will break through the current range of approximately $80 to $100 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027 at the latest, pushing up inflation and reducing energy demand. In an interview published Saturday in Il Sole 24 Ore, Descalzi said that the release of strategic reserves has so far helped keep crude oil prices roughly within this range, but this strategy is facing increasing risks because global reserves are finite. “The long-term solution is to enhance energy security through the diversification of supply sources and routes,” he said. Descalzi noted that global oil inventories have fallen by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day due to disruptions related to the war with Iran that began at the end of February, accelerating to an average of 4.6 million barrels per day in May. He stated that countries should focus on producers in North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, while reducing reliance on controlled maritime routes.July 11th - Industry insiders stated that historically, during periods of high demand in the memory chip industry, manufacturers tend to simultaneously expand production capacity, leading to a concentrated release of new capacity, a price crash, and industry-wide losses. Subsequently, manufacturers collectively reduce capital expenditures, and when demand recovers, another boom occurs – this cycle constitutes the industrys unique cyclical pattern. Since reaching its peak in late June, US memory chip stocks have experienced a collective correction due to concerns about overcapacity, triggered by news such as Metas sale of computing power. Data shows that industry leaders such as SanDisk, Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital have all seen their stock prices fall by more than 20% in the past few weeks. Analysts point out that the underlying logic supporting current demand for memory chips is facing a reassessment, with the core variable being whether the technological gap between various AI large-scale models will continue to narrow. Analysts also pointed out that the memory chip industry is undergoing a profound change in its business model: in the past, memory was more like a commodity, with prices fluctuating with the market, and contracts were mostly on a quarterly or annual basis; now, cloud vendors and AI data centers are increasingly signing long-term supply agreements with original equipment manufacturers for three to five years, with price ranges, minimum purchase quantities, and customer deposits, in order to ensure critical supply.July 11 - Due to the impact of Typhoon Bavi, the ninth typhoon of this year, the Hangzhou Bay Bridge will be closed in both directions starting at 19:30 today, prohibiting all vehicles from passing through.The CEO of Italian oil company Eni said that if the Middle East conflict continues, the oil market may break out of its current range in early 2027.

National Bank outperforms Royal Bank of Canada in terms of profitability

Aria Thomas

Aug 25, 2022 10:46

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On Wednesday, Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) missed analyst profit estimates for the third quarter, while National Bank of Canada (OTC:NTIOF) narrowly missed them. The former's capital markets division negatively affected profitability, while the latter's contributed to their growth.


Canadian banks have mainly exceeded market expectations in recent quarters, but they are now beginning to experience the negative consequences of market issues and economic uncertainty.


On a conference call with analysts, RBC forecast a modest recession in Canada and the United States in 2023, as well as a 12 percent decline in the average Canadian home price from its peak.


During a conference call with analysts, National Bank representatives emphasized that a recession is not the bank's baseline scenario and that it expected a "soft landing" for the Canadian economy.


RBC set aside C$340 million in provisions for credit losses (PCLs) to protect against potential loan impairments, compared to C$540 million in recoveries a year prior. National Bank, the smallest of Canada's Big Six banks, had a PCL of C$57 million, compared to C$43 million the year prior.


William Bonnell, the National Bank's chief risk officer, said, "Current conditions (such as unemployment and economic growth) are so positive, but the future prognosis is so uncertain." This explains why there are very few impaired loans but a large increase in performing loan provisions.


Royal Bank's reported pre-tax, pre-provision earnings declined by 3 percent compared to the previous year, while National Bank's climbed by 7 percent.


RBC shares dropped 3.1% to C$122.59, compared to a 0.1% advance in the Toronto Stock Exchange's benchmark. The stock of National Bank grew by 0.5%.


RBC reported adjusted earnings per share of C$2.55, vs analyst projections of C$2.66.


The 58% decline in RBC's capital markets profitability masked the solid margin increase and loan growth of the banking division. The company's management predicts a 10 to 15 basis point boost in margins over the next two quarters.


RBC does not anticipate a significant risk in its mortgage portfolio until 2025 or 2026, when the fixed loans taken out during the pandemic at record-low interest rates are up for renewal.


National Bank announced earnings of $2.35 per share, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.34 per share.


Its 12 percent increase in capital markets profitability, driven by the strong performance of its trading section, helped to offset the decline in its transactions division. Additionally, National Bank reported substantial expansion in both commercial and mortgage lending.


On the conference call with analysts, National Bank officials indicated that firms and households still have savings above pre-pandemic levels, which protects them from rising interest rates and keeps delinquencies low.


Tuesday, Bank of Nova Scotia's earnings disappointed the markets due to a decline in earnings from its capital markets and international divisions.