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Yen: 1. Fitch: Without a significant reduction in auto tariffs, it will be difficult for Japan and the United States to reach a trade agreement. 2. Moodys: Still believes that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, but weak wage data puts it in a difficult position. Australian dollar: 1. ING: The continued slowdown in inflation has opened a window for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates. 2. Analysts: Strong Australian employment data has sounded the alarm for the doves of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Others: 1. Indonesias foreign exchange reserves rose to US$152.6 billion at the end of June. 2. Thailands consumer price index fell more than expected in June. 3. Putin called for the expansion of local currency settlement and proposed the creation of a new BRICS investment platform. 4. Economist: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will "pause its dovish stance" this week to leave a buffer for assessing the economy. July 7 news, the market generally expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on July 8. According to a Reuters survey, 31 of 37 economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut on Tuesday; LSEG data also shows that the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates on Tuesday is 97.63% (almost a done deal). The markets reaction to the 25 basis point rate cut will depend on the tone of the Reserve Bank of Australias statement and Bullocks subsequent press conference. Both are likely to show a cautious tone before Trumps tariff deadline on July 9. The Reserve Bank of Australias goal will be to take the most favorable measures for Australias economic growth and inflation without causing market chaos.Japans 30-year government bond yield rose 10 basis points to 2.965%.Germanys industrial output in May was 1% year-on-year after adjusting for working days, compared with -1.80% in the previous month.Germanys seasonally adjusted industrial output rate in May was 1.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations of 0% and previous reading of -1.40%.

Nasdaq Surges 2.7% As Strong Earnings/US Data Boost Growth Stocks; PayPal Gains 9.0%

Cory Russell

Aug 04, 2022 14:58

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Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Break Higher Despite Strong Earnings, Strong US Data, and Fed Remarks

The US ISM Services PMI data for July and Factory Orders statistics for June sparked confidence that the US economy is, for the time being, not in recession, and on a bombardment of positive earnings reports, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes burst out to new multi-week highs on Wednesday.


Stocks also took solace from comments made by Fed policymaker Mary Daly, who downplayed the possibility of a further 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed in September. However, she also pushed back (as have other Fed policymakers in the last two days) against overly pessimistic market expectations for the Fed to start reducing interest rates in early 2023.


The S&P 500 index rose 1.6 percent to break over 4,150 for the first time since early June and leave its 100-Day Moving Average, which is located just around 4,120, in the dust. This was a bullish combination for stocks. Bulls are still aiming for a challenge of the highs from early June at 4,180.


While the Dow climbed 1.3 percent to cross back above its 100DMA just over 32,700, the Nasdaq 100 index rose 2.7 percent to reach its highest level since early May in the 13,200s.

Big Tech and Growth Stocks are the Best

The market gain on Wednesday was driven by "growth" firms, including some of the biggest names like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. The chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Management, Kim Forrest, advised investors to switch from value equities to growth ones if the economy were not now in recession but neither blazing upward either.


Gains in growth stocks were aided by a nearly 10% increase in PayPal Holding's share price after the payment technology company raised its annual profit projection and reported that activist investor Elliot Management had amassed a $2 billion holding. The S&P 500 GICS sectors with the highest concentration of growth companies, Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary, all increased by 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent on Wednesday.


Other significant companies that have reported earnings include Starbucks, which rallied after exceeding bottom-line analyst expectations in Q2 amid strong demand for its coffee in the US, CVS Health, the largest US pharmaceutical chain, and Moderna, which jumped after announcing a $3 billion share repurchase program.