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The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.The UKs core retail price index was 4.4% year-on-year in August, compared with 4.70% in the previous month.The UKs retail price index rose by 0.4% in August, in line with expectations of 0.5% and the previous reading of 0.40%.The UKs CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.10%.

NZDUSD maintains gains over 0.58 despite a small USD fall; attention focuses on NFP data

Daniel Rogers

Nov 04, 2022 17:44

 截屏2022-11-04 下午4.09.58.png

 

New buying activity emerges near 0.5755 for the NZDUSD on Friday, reversing the previous day's drop to a weekly low. Throughout the early European session, the pair has maintained a bid tone and is currently trading just over the 0.5700 round-figure mark at the day's high.

 

The US Dollar appears to have halted its post-FOMC rally and ended its six-day winning streak, supporting the NZDUSD pair. A generally upbeat mood on the equity markets is anticipated to weigh on the safe-haven dollar and assist the risk-averse New Zealand currency. Aside from this, the USD loss may be attributable to repositioning trading before of the highly anticipated US jobs report, which is due to be released later during the early North American session.

 

However, elevated US Treasury bond yields, which are supported by the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance, may prevent a deeper USD decline and limit gains for the NZDUSD pair. Recall that Fed Chair Jerome Powell denied expectations of a dovish reversal and stated that it was premature to discuss a halt to the rate-hiking cycle. Powell said that the terminal rate will remain higher than anticipated, resulting in a substantial increase in US Treasury bond yields.

 

In fact, the yield on the two-year US government bond, which is very sensitive to interest rate hike predictions, reached a 15-year high on Thursday and inched closer to the psychological 5% level. In the interim, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note remains over the 4% threshold, which is bullish for the USD. Ahead of the big data risk, the fundamental environment could prevent traders from launching aggressive bets and limit the NZDUSD pair's gain for now.